Inside the Lines with Dave Johnson

INSIDE THE LINES....Pro Football Preview

2003-12-15T11:13:00.000-08:00

Teams fighting for playoff births, rookie quarterbacks taking the field for the first time, and Mother Nature's nasty weather, are just a few of the things that will surely make this a great week #15 in the NFL.

Steelers vs. Jets @ Meadowlands, 1:00 PM ET

Both teams are hanging onto slim playoff hopes. The game opened Jets - 3 (-110), and has moved very little. Jets are coming off a tough loss last week to the Bills and are in a little better position that the Steelers for a playoff birth. The Public is currently betting the Jets at a ratio of 3 to 1. The Wiseguys have paid little attention to this game. The House will be rooting for the game to land anything but "3". With the chance of snowfall on the horizon for this game, a Jets' win by 3 is not an unlikely possibility.

Cowboys vs. Redskins @ Fedex Field, 4:15 PM ET

We made this game a little higher than the boys did in Vegas. The game opened Cowboys -1.5, but some early Wiseguy money moved it down to a pick. The Cowboys are coming off a tough loss in Philadelphia but are currently in position for a Wild Card birth, if they play hard the remainder of the season.

The Redskins are virtually eliminated, and have shown little sign of improvement the last few weeks. Hasselbeck will get another start in place of the injured Ramsey, but it's highly unlikely he will make a good showing against the league's #1 defense. The Public agrees and continues to bet the Cowboys - 1 at a ratio of 3 to 1.

Expect to see this game go higher. If the Public continues to play, we should be using -2 or -2.5 by game day. Nasty weather is also in the forecast, so keep a lookout for some Wiseguy money being played on the under 35.5.

Vikings vs. Bears @ Soldier Field 1:00 PM ET

Rex Grossman will get his first start this week since the Bears are officially eliminated from the playoff picture. Every bookmaker remembers Grossman for all the money he and the Gators cost us in college. With a strong performance this week, he might make some of that money back for us.

The game opened Vikings -1 and the Wiseguys played it up to -2. It came down off the board when the Grossman information was released and was reopened at -3. The Public is currently burying this game at a ratio of 6 to 1. The inexperience of Grossman, and the fact that the Vikings are looking to wrap up their first division crown in three years, should continue to entice more Vikings' bets. Expect to see this game Vikings -3 (-120) by game day.

Falcons vs. Colts @ RCA Dome

Michael Vick comes back for the first time last week and rushes for 141 yards against a tough Panthers' defense. There are few players in the NFL who could make such a big impact on a team's success as this phenom quarterback.

Normally, we would be writing tons of Colts' money on this game, but it has been relatively quiet. The game opened up Colts -8 and moved a half point as a result of some early Wiseguy money on the Falcons. The Public seems split on whether Manning and the Colts will cover the -7.5, or Michael Vick will come up with another huge game against a Colts' rushing defense, that is ranked 15th in the league. The only agreement on this game is the total. The league's #2 offense against the league's #1 scrambling quarterback equals points, points, and more points. The total opened 47.5 and currently sits at 48. The Public is betting the over at a ratio of 10 to 1, so don't expect to see the 48's much longer.

Seattle vs. Rams @ Edward Jones Dome

Rams are looking to clinch the NFC West and the Seahawks are looking to stay in the playoff hunt. Seahawks have been horrible on the road and the Rams have been perfect at home.

The game opened Rams -7, but some early Wiseguy money on the Seahawks moved the game to -6.5. The small play was the result of a large spread for two divisional rivals fighting for the playoffs. Normally, I would favor the underdog much like the Wiseguys, but knowing firsthand how quickly the Rams can put up points, the -6.5 might be a bargain. The Public agrees and continues to play the Rams -6.5 at a ratio of 4 to1. The game could go back to seven, as a result of the Public money, but the Wiseguys won't let it go much higher

Detroit vs. Chiefs @ Arrowhead Stadium

A two-touchdown pointspread is a lot to overcome in the NFL. The Public doesn't seem to care as they continue to lay the Chiefs -14 at a ratio of 4 to 1. The game opened 14, but has not moved at all, even in the face of the Public money being played. Could the Wiseguys be waiting for the Public to push the number to -14.5??? Possibly, considering the fact that the Chiefs have shown some holes in their armor the past few games.

Keep in mind that the Chiefs rank 28th in total defense and the Lions are fighting to avoid breaking the 22 road-loss record, currently held by the Buffalo Bills. The game will continue to attract the die-hard Chiefs' supporters, who could move the game to 14.5. If the 14.5's do show their face, catch a quick glimpse, because they shouldn't be there very long.

Ravens vs. Raiders @ Oakland Coliseum

It's always a shame to see a team completely fall apart from one year to the next. The Raiders AKA, "the dumbest team in America," are going up against a Ravens' team that currently sits in 1st place in the AFC North.

The pointspread on this game has attracted a huge amount of early attention. The Ravens opened a modest -5.5 point favorite. The Wiseguys quickly pounded the game and it moved to -6.5. The Wiseguys came in early because they had the foresight to know that the Public would also be pounding down hard on the Ravens as well. We are currently being bet Baltimore, at a ratio of 6 to 1, with huge money coming in on parlays as well as teasers at a pick. If you have plans to bet the Ravens, bet early. The game should continue to move higher, and you might end up having to pay the extra 10 cents to get the Ravens at -6.5.

Sunday Night Preview

Giants vs. Saints @ Superdome

This Sunday night matchup could have been highly anticipated. Instead, the Giants are eliminated from playoff contention and the Saints are barely alive. To add insult to injury, the Giants will be starting rookie quarterback, Jesse Palmer, in place of the injured Kerry Collins. With so little on the line, the game has still attracted some heavy betting action.

The Public has pretty much given up on the Giants and they are betting the Saints at a ratio of 15 to 1. At that ratio, expect to see the game go to Saints -7.5 on Sunday. Statistically, these teams match up pretty good, but penalties continue to hurt the Giants. If the game does go to -7.5, the Wiseguys might be enticed enough to play the Giants.

Monday Night Preview

Eagles vs. Dolphins

Philadelphia is 0-5 all time in Miami. Four of the five games have been decided by three points or less. Miami would love to make it 0-6, as they continue to fight this Monday night for the AFC Wild Card. The Eagles have wrapped up a playoff spot with their convincing win over the Cowboys, but can still secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs, with three more wins to finish out the season.

The game opened Dolphins -2, and has seen little movement. The Public is betting the Eagles at a ratio of 2 to1. Add the fact that Jay Fielder is a little banged up, and Ricky Williams has had trouble running the ball, I don't see this game going to -3. The Dolphins need this game more and will benefit from home field advantage, but the money coming in could push the game to -1, or even a pick. Expect a close, low scoring game full of excitement. This should be one of the best MNF games of the year.

ODDS ON "WHETHER ROGER CLEMENS WILL COME OUT OF RETIREMENT, OR NOT?"

2003-12-13T11:09:00.000-08:00

Is it just off-season deal talk? Is there any basis for the circulating rumors?

The Houston Astros can see the writing on the wall. This past week they made their biggest acquisition of the year and signed left-hander, Andy Pettite, to a three year, $31.5 million dollar deal. The move puts them in good position to challenge their divisional rival, the Chicago Cubs, who currently boast the strongest starting rotation in the NL Central and, arguably, the entire league.

With that deal secured, many MLB insiders have begun to circulate rumors that Roger Clemens may not be far behind. Clemens, although recently retired, has been spotted lately working out with Pettite, and has expressed interest, in the past, of playing in Houston.

"I don't know what he is thinking, but he has been working out with me all week, and he's in shape," Pettite told Dan Patrick on ESPN Radio. "He could pitch right now. I can tell you thisâ€¦if he expressed to me at all that he wanted to play, I would be all over him."

There has been so much interest from the Houston area that KKRW-FM "the Dean and Rog show" actually tried to entice Clemens, a Houston resident, to sign a deal by offering a Free Hummer. Clemens received a Hummer a few months back as his going away present from the Yankees. The Hummer being offered by KKRW was in response to Clemens concern about losing the Hummer given to him by the Yankees if he came out of retirement.

"The Rocket would be a great fit for the Astros this season," says BetCBS CEO, Dave Johnson. "Clemens and Pettitte together on such an offensively strong team could give the Astros that extra edge that they need in the playoffs. The Astros need a few players who have been there, and done that. Personally, I could not think of a better duo that could bring this type of needed experience to the Astros."

BetCBS oddsmakers have posted the following odds on whether or not Clemens will come out of retirement and pitch for the Astros this season:

Yes, Clemens will be on a 2004 MLB opening day roster +200
No, Clemens will stay in retirement -400

WHO WILL WIN THE SPORTING NEWS' NFL COACH OF THE YEAR?

2003-12-10T07:49:00.000-08:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 08 December 2003) - In this era of the salary cap and free agency, when talent throughout the league is so equal, high-caliber coaching is more important than ever. And several coaches have done remarkable jobs providing their teams with an edge.

The Sporting News has named an NFL Coach of the Year every season since 1947. The coaches who have distinguished themselves this season, by motivating their teams to the top of their divisions, will be the obvious choices for this prestigious award.

"The Coach of the Year award attracts a whole lot of attention at this time of the season," says BetCBS.com CEO, Dave Johnson. "The playoff-caliber teams begin to separate from the pack, and the strong coaching performances shine through brightly. Parcells is obviously the favorite for the turn-around he has created in Dallas. However, Marvin Lewis and John Fox have also attracted some attention for the magic they have performed for their respective franchises. This should be an extremely close vote this year. There have been some phenomenal turn-arounds, and it will be a very tough decision"

BetCBS.com Linesmen have released the following odds as to who will be named the Sporting News Coach of the Year:

Bill Parcells Even Money
Marvin Lewis +200
Bill Belicheck +300
John Fox +300
Dick Vermeil +400
Tony Dungy +400
Andy Reid +600
Jeff Fischer +600
Mike Martz +600

ODDS ON WHO WILL WIN "THE HEISMAN TROPHY"

2003-12-08T07:44:00.000-08:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 08 December 2003)- The Downtown Athletic Club of New York City, Inc. presents the Heisman Memorial Trophy Award each year to the outstanding college football player in the United States. This year's winner will be announced on December 13th at 8:00 PM Eastern.

"The Heisman Trophy is the most anticipated award during the college football season," says Dave Johnson, CEO of BetCBS.com. "Fans across the country follow the race for the Heisman in the same way they follow the BCS Standings."

Votes for the winner are determined as follows:

The nation is split into six electoral sections, i.e., Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, South, Midwest, Southwest, and Far West. Each section consists of 175 media voters culled from the print, radio and television ranks. Every past Heisman winner casts a vote as well. Each elector casts a ballot showing his top three choices. The elector's top choice receives three points, the second receives two and the third receives one. The player who receives the highest number of points across all three choices is the winner.

The current odds at BetCBS.com on who will win this coveted award are as follows:

Jason White (Oklahoma) +100
Larry Fitzgerald (Pittsburgh) +250
Eli Manning (Mississippi) +350
Chris Perry (Michigan) +350
Kevin Jones (Virginia Tech) +450
Philip Rivers (NC State) +450
Field (All Others) +600

Explanation: In the Odds listed above Jason White is the current favorite to Win the Award. A $100 bet on Jason White pays back the player $100. A $100 bet on Philip Rivers to win would pay the player back $450.

WHO WILL BE THE NEXT NEBRASKA HEAD COACH?

2003-12-08T07:32:00.000-08:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 03 December 2003)- Shockwaves were felt throughout the college football world last week when Nebraska Athletic Director, Steve Pederson, fired Head Coach, Frank Solich.

Although it was speculated earlier that Solich's job was in jeopardy, many people still do not believe that the firing was justified, especially based on the job that Solich has done the last few years.

Solich coached Nebraska to a 58-19 record over the past six seasons, but fell way short of a chance to play in the Sugar Bowl this year, or even the Big 12 Championship.

Pederson was quoted as saying, "I refuse to let this program gravitate to a level of mediocrity. We will not surrender the Big 12 Conference to Texas or Oklahoma." And so, the search for a new Nebraska Head Coach has begun, and speculation has arisen in the Cornhusker community, as well as throughout the college football community, as to who will be named.

"We have received numerous requests by players to post odds on the outcome of the Nebraska Head Coach search," says BetCBSports CEO, Dave Johnson. "Many diehard college football fans were shocked by the firing last week. The disbelief adds much anticipation and speculation as to who will be named to take over the prestigious Head Coach spot. Often, the results of such an appointment prove to be extremely surprising. Already, we have seen a lot of attention on Steve Spurrier taking over at +5000. Many players feel that risking $100 to win $5000 on Spurrier, particularly after his recent downfall, is an appealing wager."

BetCBSports linesmen have released the following odds as to who will be named to the Head Coach position:

Turner Gill(Nebraska Associate Head Coach) +200
Bo Pelini (Nebraska Defensive Coordinator) +200
Walt Harris (Pittsburgh) +300
Joe Glenn (Wyoming) +400
Rich Rodriguez (West Virginia) +500
Urban Meyer (Utah) +500
Kirk Ferentz (Iowa) +700
Les Miles (Oklahoma State) +600
Jeff Tedford (California) +600
Mike Bellotti (Oregon) +800
Monte Kiffen (Defensive Coordinator Buccaneers) +1500
Steve Spurrier (Redskins) +5000
Jimmie Johnson (Fox Sports Studio Analyst) +8000
Rick Neuheisel (Former Washington Coach) +10000
Mike Price (Former Alabama Coach) +15000
Field (Any other Coaches not Listed Above) +200

College Football Preview

2003-12-08T07:27:00.000-08:00

The following review is meant to give my players an "Inside Look" at some of the causes of line movements on football games throughout the week. This information should be taken seriously by the player, but not used as the sole basis to make his decisions on the upcoming games.

The following games were selected for review because they have received attention from either, the Wiseguys, or Public players, throughout this past week.

Bowls at Stake Once Again

SEC Championship

#5 Georgia vs. #3 LSU
The Georgia Dome

This game will be an extremely tough defensive matchup. Georgia and LSU both rank in the top ten in rushing defense and are #1 and #2 in scoring defense. LSU opened early in the week as a 2.5 point favorite. We moved a half point to LSU -3, mostly as a result of some early heavy money being bet on LSU by the Public. The current ratio of LSU bets to Georgia bets is 4 to 1.

Georgia, however, has a few small advantages in its favor. First, the Bulldogs will have the benefit of home field advantage since the game is being held at the Georgia Dome. In a close, low scoring game like this, fan support plays a huge factor. Although each team is allocated tickets, you can expect any remaining seats to be filled with Georgia fans.

Second, and no less important, is the revenge factor. They lost a close game by seven points in September to LSU. Expect the Georgia players to be mentally ready to exact some revenge.

On the other side of the ball, LSU is hungry to gain a chance for a birth in the coveted Sugar Bowl. A convincing win vs. Georgia, and a loss by USC, could seal the deal. Quarterback Matt Mauck is not a stranger to big games. The star quarterback was the 2001 Title game MVP. Expect him to rise to the occasion again with a big game.

Factors in favor of both teams should make this a close game. Don't expect to see -3.5's on the game, unless the Wiseguys discover some valuable LSU information.

BIG 12 Championship

#1 Oklahoma vs. #13 Kansas State
Arrowhead Stadium

Kansas State and Oklahoma come into this game ranking in the top 20 in both rushing and passing defense. Oklahoma opened early in the week as a huge 14-point favorite. I was a little surprised by the two-touchdown spread, considering that Kansas State has been consistently dominant on both sides of the ball this season.

The 14's quickly disappeared as early Wiseguy money soaked up the two-touchdown spread. The game has already moved a point and a half and currently sits at -12.5.

Kansas State has a strong pass defense, which could prove to be big factor in this game. The Oklahoma pass offense, specifically the White-Clayton duo, comprises 62% of their total offensive output. If Kansas State can contain the pass, the game could be kept close, and could come down to running the ball. If it does come down to running the ball, Kansas State can turn to their leading rusher and Conference rushing leader, Darren Sproles. If Sproles can find some holes in the Oklahoma rush defense, things could get mighty exciting.

On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma has been nearly flawless all season. Like most great teams they have risen to the occasion against all obstacles and have overcome each one convincingly.

Expect White to come out passing. A big game like this one, against a tough Conference rival, could seal the deal for the Big 12 Championship, a birth in the Sugar Bowl, and ultimately the Heisman Trophy itself. Sounds like a lot to swallow, but White has proved himself and handled the pressure well, week in and week out this season.

Kansas State has a few intangibles that could work to their advantage, if they come ready to play. The Public was happy when the Wiseguys took away those 14's, and they continue to lay the favorite -12.5 at a ratio of 7 to 1. The money could drive the game back to 14, but don't expect to see it go any higher. The wise money won't let this spread go past two touchdowns.

Small Wins and Smaller Miracles

2003-12-08T07:26:00.000-08:00

Small Wins and Smaller Miracles

The Hurricanes winning by 14, and SMU covering the 24.5 point spread, knocked down some big Teaser money for the House. We needed every bit of it to sustain devastating wins by the Bulldogs and Volunteers.

Licking our wounds we headed into Sunday with great optimism. The optimism was crushed when the Seahawks, Eagles and Rams exploded offensively with lopsided victories. A late Flutie TD and a 48-yard pass by Leftwich, sealed the deal late, and the House snuck by miraculously with a small winning weekend.

COLLEGE RECAP

#9 FSU vs. #11 Florida

This game had it all - bad calls, acrobatic catches, suspense and ultimately fighting. The PK Sam 52 yard TD reception, with 55 seconds left, helped the House cover on all the Florida Public money we wrote at +1 and +1.5. We lost small on Teasers when FSU +4.5 and Florida +7.5 connected, but then knocked down a lot of Parlays.

Result: Medium House Win

#5 Georgia vs. Georgia Tech

The Bulldogs needed a big win to earn a shot at the SEC Championship game next week vs. LSU. They have done just that, eliminating the Yellow Jackets easily by 17 points. The Public bet on Georgia -7, -7.5 and -8. The Wiseguys came in at post and laid us -8.5, moving the game to -9.5 and -10 before closing. Reggie Ball never played the second half, and Georgia covered easily.

Result: Huge Player Win

#10 Miami vs. #20 Pittsburgh

The Hurricanes ran the ball through Pittsburgh on their way to the Big East Conference Title. Payton and Moss both had explosive days, and exposed the weak Pittsburgh defense against the run, along the way. The Public favored Pittsburgh +3 in this game, but the Wiseguys came in and laid the Hurricanes at post. The game went to Miami -3.5, but we were still taking more money on Pittsburgh. Pitt looked good their first series, but in the end, the game wasn't even close. Hurricanes won by enough to knock down the 10 point Teasers at +13.

Result: Medium House Win

#19 TCU vs. SMU

The fact they knew they were not going to a Bowl Championship Series game may have had a little to do with the lethargic play of TCU on Saturday. A huge favorite at -24.5 they barely escaped with a win. The game opened TCU -23, and we wrote business from -23 to -24.5. This extremely close game was a huge win for the House. Although SMU lost, they covered sufficiently to help the house knock down all the Teasers across the board, including 6, 6.5, 7, 10, and the 14 points.

Result: Large House Win

#7 Tennessee vs. Kentucky

The largest move of the day was also the largest loss for the house. Tennessee opened a 10-point favorite and quickly went through the roof. The Wiseguys slammed this game at -10 and -10.5 early in the week. The Public followed, and continued to bet the game driving the number up to -12.5.

On game day a large Wiseguy outfit came in and laid the -12.5, driving the number farther up to the closing line of -13.5. When so much money comes in on one side of a game, a Bookmaker must decide to move the game higher in the hopes of taking back money, or to continue writing business at the same number.

Common sense would tell the inexperienced linesman to move the game and protect the business, but often people fail to realize that by moving the game, we run the risk of being middled. Well, that risk became a reality. We wrote the majority of business from Tenn -10, through Tenn -13, and the game landed -13. All players who laid Tenn -13 or better won, and the few players who came in late on Kentucky +14 (-120) won as well.

Result: Huge Player Win

Pro Recap

Bills vs. Giants

Bledsoe was feeling a little woozy, but he was in there long enough to connect on 19 passes against a hapless Giants' defense. The Giants managed to put 7 points on the board in the third quarter, but it was not enough to win this game, and perhaps secure Fassell's job. The game looked like a possible "3 count" game before it started, but that thought was quickly diminished. Bills won easily, and the House won on Straights and Teasers with this lopsided victory.

Result: Medium House Win

Chiefs vs. Chargers

Somebody ate his Flutie flakes. The late TD scored by Flutie, as time expired, saved us from a devastating loss. The Public laid the Chiefs -7 and -7. They Teased the Chiefs -1 and -1.5. The Teasers still connected, but the late TD pulled the Chargers within 4 points and knocked down all the Straight Bets for the House. There were also a few happy Wiseguys out there, who came in late and took the Chargers +7.5 at post.

Result: Medium House Win

Vikings vs. Rams

Under normal circumstances, we would be rooting for the Vikings to lose. However, playing the Rams on the road are not normal circumstances. The Public still loves to bet the Rams as they came in strong on Straight bets and Teasers at a pick and -1. The game was never close. Daunte was sacked eight times…yes, I repeat, eight times. We lost everything on this game, right across the board, including Straights, Parlays and Teasers.

Result: Large Player Win

Patriots vs. Colts

The hottest team in the NFL and they were bet heavily. The game opened Colts -4, and the Public were betting the Patriots at a ratio of 3 to 1. A little before post, a Wiseguy play came out on the Patriots +4, and we moved the game to 3.5.

When the game started, we were buried with Patriots' money. Colts started slow and made it close towards the last whistle of the game. Towards the end of the game, we actually started to root for the Patriots. If the Colts score at the end, and go up by 3 points, both sides of the Teasers (Colts +3 and Patriots +10) would have pushed or won. The game ending on the 1-yard line, with the Patriots up by 4, at least ensured us that all the Colts' +3 money was knocked down.

Result: Large Player Win

Eagles vs. Panthers

This game was packed full of missed opportunities. The Wiseguys came in early in the week and took +2.5 on the Eagles. The Public bet the Eagles heavy at +2 and +1.5. The majority of the Teasers were on the Eagles at +7.5.

We assumed this would be a close game, but mistakes and missed opportunities killed us on the Panthers. Three missed field goals, and an unsuccessful 4th and 1 before the end of the first half, killed any chance the Panthers had to cover the spread. They lose by 9 points, and the Eagles Straight and Teaser money cover.

Result: Large Player Win

Buccaneers vs. Jaguars

Going into this game, we still had a bad taste leftover from the Eagles, Colts and Rams. The House was down for the day with those wicked afternoon losses. Players were hitting us hard on the Bucs -3.5 even and the Bucs in seven point Teasers +3.5.

The Bucs needed this game, but hardly played with any sense of urgency. Jacksonville went up early 7-0 to start the game, and we got a little overly excited. The excitement was dashed when the Bucs came back with 10 unanswered points to go up by 3 in the second quarter. We knocked down a little money at halftime when the Jaguars nailed a 28-yard field goal with 12 ticks left on the clock.

The second-half line opened Bucs -3 (-110), and we got buried again. More money came in on the Bucs, but there was nothing that could be done. We were rooting that the game would not land Bucs -3.

A missed Gramatica field goal in the third quarter, followed by the 48-yard Jimmy Smith TD reception, made the game land 7, and the House had its biggest win of the day. In addition to all the Straight and Teasers money, we got all the Bucs second-half money -3. This game made the day and the weekend. Without the win, we would have lost for the week. Overall, this was not a great week for the House, and there will still be plenty of payouts.

Monday Night Forecast:

Public has been betting us at a ratio of 8 to 1 on the Titans. Game opened Titans -1.5, when McNair was doubtful. Since being upgraded to probable, the Wiseguys and Public have been coming in heavy on Tennessee. The House will be rooting for Pennington to have a big night. This will be two consecutive nights where the House has needed big games from Marshall quarterbacks.

ODDS ON THE PEPSI NFL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

2003-12-01T07:29:00.000-08:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica 01 December 2003)- After the regular season, five players will be nominated for Pepsi NFL "Rookie of the Year" honors. Fans can vote for the winner on NFL.com throughout the month of January. The winner will be announced at a press conference at Super Bowl XXXVIII in Houston.

"Rookie of the Year is a huge honor," says BetCBSports CEO, Dave Johnson, "Our players love to bet on the rookies from their favorite teams. The odds on favorite at the current time is the Cardinals Anquan Boldin, who could challenge the rookie record for receptions currently held by Keith Jackson in 1988. However, there is a lot of value in the other players as well. Byron Leftwich has had some big games recently, including the Sunday night win over the Buccaneers. We expect to see some action coming in on the +400 this upcoming week for Leftwich."

Last season's winner was Jeremy Shockey of the New York Giants. Shockey led all NFL tight ends with 74 receptions and 894 receiving yards, while breaking the New York Giants' records in both receptions and receiving yards by a player in that position.

The current odds on the winner of the prestigious award at BetCBSports.com are as follows:

WR Anquan Boldin (Cardinals) +EVEN
RB Domanick Davis (Texans) +200
QB Byron Leftwich (Jaguars) +400
CB Terence Newman (Cowboys) +400
WR Andre Johnson (Texans) +400
OLB Terrell Suggs (Ravens) +500
MLB Nick Barnett (Packers) +600
CB Marcus Trufant (Seahawks) +600
CB Charles Tillman (Bears) +1000
FS Ken Hamlin (Seahawks) +1000
DE Kevin Williams (Vikings) +1200
OLB Boss Bailey (Lions) +1400
OLB Lance Briggs (Bears) +1800
OLB Pisa Tinoisamoa (Rams) +2000
FS Rashean Mathis (Jaguars) +2200
Field (All other rookie players) +600

Explanation of the odds: A $100 wager on Anquan Boldin would payback $100, if the player wins the award. Comparatively, a winning $100 wager on Nick Barnett would payback $600.

NFL Thanksgiving Preview

2003-11-26T07:22:00.000-08:00

Don't Count Any Turkey Out-Just Yet!

The following review is meant to give my players an "Inside Look" at some of the causes of line movements on football games throughout the week. This information should be taken seriously by the player, but not used as the sole basis to make his decisions on the upcoming games.

The following games were selected for review because they have received attention from either, the Wiseguys, or Public players, throughout this past week.

Packers vs. Lions
Ford Field
Opening Line: Packers -7.5

What would Thanksgiving be without a little NFL? The Lions fell apart last week and gave up two late game interception Td's vs. the Vikings. However, they played hard and stayed in the game right up until the end.

The Packers, for their part, are coming off a much needed home win vs. the 49ers. Ahman Green had another huge game running the ball and the Packers moved into 2nd place in the NFC North.

The game opened Packers -7.5 this week. The Wiseguys came in and took the 7.5's and the game went to the current line of Packers -6.5. The Public is betting us at a ratio of 4 to 1 on the Packers. The large amount of money coming in on the favorite should drive the line up to -7 by game day.

Two of the Packers starting defensive players, Darren Sharper and Nick Barnett, are both questionable, and Favre is still troubled by an injury to his throwing hand. His completions per game have dropped, from over 21 thru the first seven games of the season, to less than 14 in the last four games. If the hand problem persists, expect to see Ahman Green run the ball at least 25+ times.

Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Texas Stadium
Opening Line: Cowboys -3

Fielder is back, and it looks like he has succeeded in jump-starting the Dolphins' offense. Fielder and the Dolphins scored two Td's, late in the Redskins' game, for their biggest come-from-behind victory since 1980. The Cowboys are also coming off an emotional win vs. the Panthers that has tied them with the Eagles in the NFC East.

Parcells and the "Boys" have become a Public favorite the past couple of weeks. The Public has bet the Cowboys all week, and this game is no different as they are betting them -3 at a ratio of 3 to 1.

The possibility of this game landing "3" is extremely strong. Both teams possess top 10 defenses and mediocre offenses. Don't expect to see any 3.5's on the game, but you should see Cowboys -3 (-120), if the money continues to fall on the "Boys." The Wiseguys expressed a little interest on the Dolphins at +3 (-105), early on Monday when we opened.

The Cowboys are ranked 1st in overall defense. Look for the Dolphins to try to establish a passing game early in order to open up some room for Ricky Williams to run the ball. This game will attract a huge amount of Teaser money on both sides, i.e., Cowboys +3 and Dolphins +3. The House will be rooting for a blowout by either team, preferably the Dolphins.

I would also like to send a special thanks to all of my players and their families during the Thanksgiving holiday. Enjoy the time with your family, eat plenty of turkey and, most of all, ENJOY the games.

INSIDE THE LINES...Monday Morning Quarterback

2003-11-25T07:58:00.000-08:00

Saturday was a little rough with the Players' biggest wins on USC, Michigan State and Michigan. Sunday didn't get that much better, when a huge day was spoiled by late 4th quarter comebacks. The House won small for the week, but it could have been much better if only we had knocked down the Colts, Jets and Titans.

COLLEGE RECAP

Ohio State vs. Michigan

Navarre vindicates himself, and Michigan smells the Roses. Big games from both Perry and Edwards were too much for the Buckeyes to handle. The only up side for the House was that the game didn't land on the "seven count."
Result: Second Largest Player Win

Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech

The Sooners shut down the nation's top offense by running the zone to perfection. The game hurt us straight across the board. We wrote business at -18 through -21, and the Sooners covered easily. Before game time, the Wiseguys bet Tech +3 touchdowns for a small play. The overall action on this game was not that heavy, which saved the House a little. The 21-point spread may have scared away a little bit of the Public business.
Result: Medium Player Win

USC vs. UCLA

USC was taking the field just as Michigan was finishing off the Buckeyes. USC's Sugar Bowl dreams were back. Leinart had a big game with 289 yards and 2 Td's, and the Trojans covered the spread easily. The Players won big on this game knocking down the Straight Bets, Parlays and Teasers. We wrote business at every number from 21 to 23.5. This was a big Public game, and there was no late opposition from the Wiseguys.
Result: Largest Player Win

LSU vs. OLE Miss

Bookmakers don't get to vote, but Eli Manning is my pick for the Heisman. He played well enough Saturday to help us knock down LSU -6.5 and -7. We also knocked out some Parlays, but were bitten back a little with the Teasers on LSU -1/2 and -1.
Result: Medium House Win

Other Noteworthy Games:

Penn State/Michigan State Large Player Win
Washington/Washington State Medium House Win
Purdue/Indiana Small House Win
Iowa/Wisconsin Medium House Win
Wisconsin/Kansas State Medium House Win

PRO RECAP

Jaguars vs. Jets

Late 4th quarter heroics by Chad Pennington cost us money in Teasers. The Public was all over the recently charging Jets -4, and Jets on Teasers +2. The game-winning field goal was not enough to cover the four-point spread, so we knocked down enough money in Straight Bets to cover the loss on the Teasers.
Result: Small Win for the House

Titans vs. Falcons

We wrote huge Public money all week on the Titans. Straight Bets were written at 6.5, 6.5 (-115), 6.5 (-120) and 7, before game time. There was some opposition from the Wiseguys on this game. Every time we threw out a seven on the game, it was taken immediately. We ended up going into the game with most of our money written @ -6.5 on Straight Bets, and a pick on Teasers.
The game looked like it would be our biggest win of the day. Excitement was in the air when the Falcons jumped out to a 21-point lead in the 1st quarter. A little panic crept back when McNair threw two second-quarter touchdowns, but when he got knocked out of the game, there was instant widespread celebration. I was thinking, " There is no way that Billy Volek will win this game for the Titans." Well, needless to say, he did win the game, and we suffered a devastating House loss. The game lands seven and we paid the Public -6.5 and the Wiseguys on the +7.5.
Result: Largest Player Win of the Day

Bears vs. Broncos

Da Bears. They saved us big time this week. Playing in the second coldest home game in Broncos' history, the Bears and Kordell Stewart pulled off a huge upset. We had a large amount of Public money written at -10 and -10.5. The Teasers were all Broncos as well -4 and -4.5.
We knocked everything down. The game netted us out even on the 4:00 games after the huge Titans' loss. We licked our wounds and got ready for the night game.
Result: Largest House Win of the Day

Redskins vs. Dolphins

The Wiseguys and the Public were all over the Dolphins at a ratio of 3 to 1. Ramsey was questionable, and backup Tim Hasslebeck had little NFL experience. They laid the Dolphins all week, -6, -6.5 and -7.
Ramsey leaves the game early, and I start to get a little worried. However, Hasselbeck was amazing early in the game, completing passes and giving us a nice 20-7 cushion at half time.
The Dolphins pulled off their biggest, fourth-quarter comeback since 1980, but it wasn't enough to hurt the House. We knocked down all the Dolphins -7 on the Straights and Parlays, and pushed all the Teasers on Dolphins -1.
Result: Large Win for the House

OTHER NOTE WORTHY GAMES

Seahawks vs. Ravens

Miracle game lands 3, and we get middled. We lost on the -1 to -2.5, as well as the +3.5 (-130) taken on the game before post. Both sides of the Teasers connected.
Result: Medium Player Win

Panthers vs. Cowboys

Cowboys win by 4 and cover the 3-point spread. We knocked down small Straight and Parlay money on the Public who laid -4.
Result: Small House Win

49ers at Packers

Teasers break even because 49ers don't cover on the +9.5. We lose small money to the Public on the Packers, -3.5, -4 and -4.5.
Result: Small Player Win

ODDS ON WHETHER ALEX RODRIGUEZ WILL BE TRADED

2003-11-24T12:05:00.000-08:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 13 November 2003)-It's that time of year when boundless rumors over mega trades arrive at the forefront. This past week an extremely strong free-agent crop emerged with the most popular name being that of Alex Rodriguez. Will he be traded, or not?

Texas Rangers GM, John Hart was quoted recently as saying a Rodriguez trade would be a "long shot." Furthermore, he said, "We have the player, we love the player, we're going to retain the player. We're not talking about it. We're not interested in trading Alex."

However, other sources close to Rangers management have said that the $25 million a year spent on Rodriguez could be better served by adding several lesser players. They have said openly that they will entertain any offers made for the superstar.

Candidates who could afford to pick up the remaining seven year, $189 million dollar, blockbuster contract include, but are not limited to, the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Anaheim Angels and even the Los Angeles Dodgers.

"AROD is the most talented player in baseball," says BetCBSports CEO, Dave Johnson. However, the Rangers management learned the hard way that superstars could sell tickets. It must also be accepted that, in a team sport like baseball, the great players can't win alone. The Rangers have finished dead last the past three seasons, and now the possibility of a serious trade exists. We aim to make it exciting for you to bet on such an intriguing possibility."

We have posted the following odds on whether Alex Rodriguez will be traded before opening day this upcoming season:

YES, Alex Rodriguez will be traded +600
NO, Alex Rodriguez will not be traded -1000

Wagering YES on Alex Rodriguez means he will be traded, and he will approve the trade. Alex Rodriguez has a no-trade clause in his contract, so all trades will ultimately have to be approved by him.

The Hot Teams Are Heating Up!

2003-11-24T12:04:00.000-08:00

The following review is meant to give the player an "Inside Look" at some of the causes of line movements on football games throughout the week. This information should be taken seriously by the player, but not used as the sole basis to make his decisions on the upcoming games.

The following games were selected for review because they have received attention from either, the Wiseguys or Public players, throughout this past week.

COLLEGE PREVIEW

#4 Ohio State vs. #5 Michigan
Michigan Stadium, 12 PM ET, ABC

This is the biggest game of the upcoming weekend. Ohio State is fighting for a second consecutive chance for a National Championship, and Michigan is looking for a Big Ten title and a birth in the Rose Bowl.

Personally, I made the game a little lower, but the lack of offensive output, in large part due to the inconsistent play of Krenzel the last few weeks, justifies the high line on the Wolverines.

The game opened Michigan -7, and has not seen much movement. The Public is evenly split on this game right down the middle. This is an extremely heavily bet game, but we are writing the same amount of money on both teams.

We have a large number of players buying "on" and "off" the seven count. Where we sit now, if the game stays seven and lands seven, the House could take a beating. For even the tamest sport fan, there should be plenty of excitement in this game. Look for a big game from Navarre, who surely still has memories of the goal line interception of last season's game.

#1 Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
Jones SBC Stadium, 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Oklahoma looks to keep their perfect season intact and pursue a National Championship with a win vs. the Red Raiders.

The game opened Sooners-18 and quickly moved to -19. The Wiseguys came in early looking to capitalize on a weak Texas Tech team, who could perhaps be a little tired after the tough three-point loss to the Longhorns.

The Public has bet the Sooners every week this season and this game in no different. We are currently writing Oklahoma bets at a ratio of 9 to 1. The Sooners could have some trouble with the strong arm of Symons, but don't expect heroics. If the Public continues to play the Sooners, with no opposition, expect to see some -20 by game time.

#2 USC vs. UCLA
Memorial Coliseum, 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Southern Cal has dropped to third in the BCS Standings. This could be the catalyst for the Trojans to play more aggressively than usual.

The Public seems to agree as they have been betting the Trojans at a ratio of 23 to 1. The game is our most heavily bet one of the week. The game opened USC -21, but we moved it to -22 late Wednesday as a result of the heavy money being played. At this rate, the game will go to -22.5, or even -23, by Saturday, unless the Wiseguys find some value in the Bruins taking 3+ touchdowns.

#3 LSU vs. #15 Ole Miss
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, 3:30 PM ET, CBS

LSU has an outside shot at the Sugar Bowl, but in order to win the SEC West, they need to first get past Ole Miss. That task may prove daunting, considering Heisman candidate, Eli Manning, is leading the SEC with 36.6 points per game, and a victory here would wrap up the SEC West for Ole Miss.

There's been very little activity on this game. The Wiseguys have been quiet and the Public seems split on such a tight game. We have received a small number of bets with more of them on LSU -6.5. With public opinion split, don't expect much movement unless the Wiseguys see some value.

PRO PREVIEW

Seahawks vs. Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, 1:00 PM ET

There was a strong Wiseguy move on the Ravens early in the week. It's hard to tell the reason, but possibilities include, home field advantage after losing two close games on the road, as well as a shouting match in the locker room between Ray Lewis and another player regarding accountability. These incidents often supply the spark a team needs into getting both the offense and defense back on track.

The game opened Ravens -1 as a small favorite, but has risen to Ravens -3 (even). Seems like a strong move for a team that is running with a third string quarterback with limited experience.

The Public is betting the Ravens 2 to 1, but doesn't expect to see any Ravens -3.5 on the game. If anything, the Wiseguys will probably take back some Seattle +3.5 (-140) before game time.

Panthers vs. Cowboys
Texas Stadium, 1:00 PM ET

The biggest game of the weekend matches up the surging Panthers and the faltering Cowboys. Dallas is coming off a devastating loss to the Patriots, and the Panthers are entering this game with two emotional wins vs. the Buccaneers and the Skins. The game opened Cowboys -3 (-110). The Wiseguys came in Wednesday and made a small play on the Panthers +3 (-110), and the game went to +3 (-120). Not a strong play, but still a 10-cent move.

The Public was watching Monday Night when Parcell's offense got blanked for the second time in four games. They currently are betting the Panthers +3 (-120) at a ratio of 3 to 1. If the trend continues, and the Wiseguys decide to play the game again, you could see the game go possibly to Panthers +3 (-130) before game time. With two strong defenses, the possibility increases of the "3 count" landing in a game like this. We will definitely not move off the "3 count," and open ourselves up to getting middled, unless extremely strong money comes in on the Panthers.

49ers vs. Packers
Lambeau Field, 1:00 PM ET

A star is born. Tim Rattay played extremely well against the Steelers last week and Coach Erickson is hoping for a similar performance at Lambeau. It won't be easy for the 49ers to find their first road victory in Green Bay. They are winless on the road.

They are calling for a 70% chance of rain and 34 degrees temperature with the wind chill. This type of weather brings out the best in Brett Favre. His X-rays Wednesday showed no new damage to his injured thumb, so expect numbers similar to his past couple of weeks.

The game opened Packers -5, but early Wiseguy money moved it down to -4.5. This game will be a huge Public Teaser game. I expect big money coming in on the 49ers + 10.5 and the Packers +1.5. The weather will be a big factor as always at Lambeau. If temperatures drop and the rain increases, you could see the game go back to the Packers -5.

Broncos vs. Bears
Soldier Field, 4:05 PM ET

Jake Plummer is back and the Public loves it. Similar to last week, the Public has been betting the Broncos in Straights, Parlays and Teasers. The game opened -10, but has moved to -10.5 with the influx of Broncos' money.

With the Bears almost mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, they have announced the possibility of playing Rex Grossman. Denver would surely like nothing better than to see an inexperienced quarterback at the helm. The Broncos are poised to make a strong run at the playoffs, which will be tough considering they are three games behind the Chiefs.

The Bears have played better ball the last few weeks, but will need a strong effort, and perhaps a miracle, to stay in this game. I don't see much takeback money coming in before game time. Expect to see the game -11 or -11.5 at the kickoff.

Monday Morning Quarterback

2003-11-19T08:19:00.000-08:00

Saturday started off with some brutal bumps and bruises. We got murdered on the big College decisions, which included LSU and TCU. We went into Sunday with the hopeful optimism of getting some of that money back. Fortunately, the 1:00 PM games were huge. We literally knocked out all of the big Parlay and Teaser games. The early afternoon had all of the makings of a huge Sunday, right up until the Colts game landed right on the number. Following is a blow by blow of our bittersweet weekend.

BIG COLLEGE DECISIONS

#15 Florida Wins by 2 Points Over South Carolina

The Public loved Florida. Saturday morning we were so heavy on Florida we had to move the game to -7.5 to get a little takeback. With the absence of South Carolina's leading rusher, Demetrius Summers, the Public continued to lay the -7.5 on the game, right up until the kickoff. In the second half, the Gamecocks gave us a little scare when they couldn't stop the career-high, rushing day of Ciatrick Fason, but they held on long enough to ensure us the cover on the +7 and +7.5. We did well knocking out the Straight bets on this game, but lost a little back to all of those players who had the Gamecocks or Florida in Teasers.

Result: Small House Win

#10 TCU Wins by 33 Points Over Cincinnati

Week in, and week out, TCU defies the critics. The Public laid -7 on this game all week. I fully expected the Wiseguys to come in before the start and take back some Cincinnati +7.5. The exact opposite happened. The Wisguys stormed in on TCU on Saturday, laying -6.5(-120) on the buy, and -7 (-110). We quickly moved it to -7.5, but could do nothing to get any takeback. By the start of the game, we were heavy at -6.5, -7, -7.5 and -8. To rub salt in the wound, the game wasn't even close. TCU played like a team destined to earn a little respect. They convincingly avenged last seasons loss, and are now ranked sixth in the BCS, with a chance for a birth in a major Bowl game.

Result: Large Player Win

Kansas State Wins by 29 Over #18 Nebraska

Early in the week, we had Wiseguy money on Kansas State -2 and -2.5. On Saturday, however, the Public hit us hard on Nebraska +2.5. The fact that Kansas State has never won in Nebraska could have persuaded the Public to favor the Dogs at home +2.5. The game didn't move much at that point. Most players were taking +2.5 or +3 (-130) on the buy on Nebraska. The fact we had written early Wiseguy money was the deciding factor to keep the game 2.5 even, with the heavy Public money coming in at gametime. Kansas State won easily for the first time in Lincoln since 1968, and clinched a share of the Big 12 North title. The Wiseguys won a little, but we cleaned up on the Straights, Parlays and Teasers made on Nebraska.

Result: Medium House Win

#5 Michigan Wins by 31 Over Northwestern

The Wiseguys thought Northwestern +20 was a good bet. After all, they were coming off a bye week, and were facing Ohio State on the horizon. The Wiseguys were dead wrong. Michigan controlled this game from the opening possession, and easily covered the 18.5 point spread. We received a lot of Saturday money on Michigan from the Public laying the points. The game never moved much because of the early money bet on Northwestern. As a sad result, the public took home the dough, and beat us across the board on Straights, Parlays and Teasers.

Result: Medium Player Win

#3 LSU Wins by 24 Over Alabama

Ouch!!! I guessed wrong on the TCU game earlier and repeated that mistake with LSU. I really thought we would write some Alabama business back at +7.5 before gametime. Never happened. After writing LSU -7 money to the Public all week, the Wiseguys followed suit and came in strong at -7 and -7.5. There was nothing we could do to manufacture a takeback of any of the money on Alabama. We ended up closing the game -7.5 (-120). We know you don't care, but we got hurt bad. The Crimson Tide was dominated by LSU, who may have been motivated by the earlier overtime win by Ohio State. It was a horrible way for the House to end the day.

Result: Largest Player Win of the Day

NFL SUNDAY-BIG DECISIONS

Houston Wins by 2 Over Bills

The Public bettors on this one were not deterred in the least by the lack of offensive output from the Bills the last couple of weeks. They came in strong on six and seven point Buffalo Teasers at a pick and -1. We needed the Texans to win outright to knock out the Teasers on the game. To make matters more interesting, the Wiseguys laid -6 and -6.5 on the Bills before the start of game. We closed the game Bills -7, with little money on the Dog. The game was excruciating to watch. The Bills had many opportunities to cover and win the game. They engineered three drives inside the 20, and they came away with only two field goals. The injury to Eric Moulds proved to be a big factor, in the lack of offense, as they were unable to cash in within the Red Zone. The Texans squeaked by with a win, and we knocked out the biggest Teaser game of the day. The Wiseguys also helped by donating a little money on the Straight bets at -6 and -6.5.

Result: Large Teaser Win for the House

Bengals Win by 5 Over Chiefs

This was a huge game. The Public has been killing us all year on the undefeated Chiefs. Vermeil hurt us a few years back with the RAMS, and he's done it again this year with the Chiefs. Personally, I was a little worried about this game. Chad Johnson had gone public and guaranteed a victory, which often motivates the other team into playing their hearts out. Fortunately for the House, it didn't happen. We knocked down Straights-6, Parlays with the Chiefs and Over, and Teasers with the Chiefs at a pick. The win was the largest of the day and one of the best for the year. We had to give a little money back to the Wiseguys on some late money taken on the Bengals at +7 (-130).

We offered a Prop last week for the Chiefs to go undefeated all season. All the money we wrote was on the Chiefs to win every game +700. We knocked down good money on the Prop as well.

Result: Huge Win for the House

Eagles Win by 18 Over Giants

This so-called battle of the NFC East looked more like a playground fight. Although these two usually play a close game, often decided by a late field goal, this one was hardly a nail biter. McNabb silenced his critics as he threw for 314 yards and 2 TD's. Similar to the Bills game, we blew out tons of Teasers on the Giants +10.5. The Wiseguys were undecided. We had some Sharp players laying the Eagles at -3 even. Another Sharp group bet us Giants +3.5 (-120).

The opposition between the Wiseguys and Public on the game caused it to experience little movement. We went into the game hoping to knock out at least one side of the Teasers. The possibility of the game landing three, and having all Teasers hit, and also both sides of the spread -2.5 and +3.5, caused a little concern as well. That concern was immediately put to rest.

Result: Medium Teaser Win for the House

Raiders Win by 10 Over Vikings

We could not write a bet on the Raiders all week. The Public laid so much -5, that the game quickly went to -5.5 by early Sunday morning. This is exactly what the Wiseguys were looking for. They took Raiders +5.5 on the game, and it quickly went down to -4.5. We continued to write money on the Vikings -4.5 from the Public, right up to the moment the game started. Although we took the Wiseguy hit at +5.5, we still needed the Raiders to win because of the massive amount of Public money that came in on the Vikings Straight up and in Teasers.

The Raiders winning outright was huge. We knocked down all the Straight bets on the Point Spread and the Moneyline. Often, Public players will put Moneylines in their Parlays, when betting the Away Favorites. We knocked down all of these as well. We gave a little Straight money back to the Wiseguys on the +5.5, but knocked down the majority of Public money.

Result: Large Win for the House

Colts Win by 7 Over Jets

Our early euphoria was quickly dissolved as we watched the Colts game land right on the number. This game was destructive for the House as both the Public and the Wiseguys middled us. We wrote Public money all week long on the Colts -6 and -6.5. The money was so large that we went to Colts -7 before gametime. The Wiseguys came in hard and attacked. Buying the Half Point, they bet us Jets +7.5 (-120).

The 'seven count,' in the NFL, is not considered strong enough to justify charging more to players when buying 'on' or 'off' the number seven. We may have to reevaluate that policy after this season. While watching the end of the game, I had a strong premonition of impending disaster when the Jets made it close. I was actually rooting for a miracle sothey would miss the extra point, and the game would land six. Never happened. We lost back a big portion of the early wins to the Public, who laid -6 and -6.5, and the Wiseguys who took +7.5 on the game.

Result: Huge Win for the Players

Broncos Win by 29 Over Chargers

What happened Doug? He played so well last week I thought, going into the game, we might have a chance to win even a little money. That was not to be, as the Broncos came out strong and controlled every aspect of the game. The Public laid -8 on the Broncos. The Wiseguys followed suit and laid the -8 on Sunday, moving the game to -8.5. It was impossible to write a bet on the lowly Chargers. The fact they were coming off a big win the week before, and the return of Jake Plummer, surely had to do with the large number of bets on Denver. The only positive note is that the game wasn't even close. There is nothing worse than rooting the game, until the end, only to lose.

The Public hurt us bad on Broncos Teasers -2.5, and the Wiseguys got us on the -8.

Result: Huge Win for the Players

BetCBSports.com POSTS ODDS ON MICHAEL JACKSON TRIAL

2003-11-19T06:58:00.000-08:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 19 November 2003)- Authorities issued an arrest warrant on Wednesday for the self-proclaimed King of Pop, Michael Jackson. The superstar singer of the popular hit, "I'm Bad!" faces multiple counts of child molestation, as the warrant was issued and bail was set at $3 million. The warrant is for violation of a California law that prohibits lewd or lascivious acts with a child under the age of 14.

"This case will be right up there with the Kobe Bryant trial," says BetCBSports.com CEO, Dave Johnson. "High Profile Criminal Trials catch the publics interest. Wagering on the outcome makes it more interesting."

District Attorney, Thomas W. Sneddon Jr., has said that the sealed affidavit, outlining details of the case, will be released in 45 days. He was quoted as saying, "At this point in time, Mr. Jackson has been given an opportunity to surrender himself to the custody of the Santa Barbara Sheriff's Department, within a specified period of time."

A spokesperson for Jackson declined comment, but has said a statement will be released late Wednesday.

Will Michael Jackson be found guilty? Will he serve prison time?

BetCBSports.com has posted the following odds on the outcome:

Yes, Michael Jackson will be found guilty -160
No, Michael Jackson will be acquitted/hung jury +120

(Betting YES on the above odds means the player has to bet $160 to win $100. Betting NO means the player can bet $100 to win $120.).

BetCBS.com POSTS ODDS ON WHO WILL WIN "THE HEISMAN TROPHY"

2003-11-18T07:02:00.000-08:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 18 November 2003)- The Downtown Athletic Club of New York City, Inc. presents the Heisman Memorial Trophy Award each year to the outstanding college football player in the United States. This year's winner will be announced on December 13th at 8:00 PM Eastern.

"The Heisman Trophy is the most anticipated award during the college football season," says Dave Johnson, CEO of BetCBSports.com. "Fans across the country follow the race for the Heisman in the same way they follow the BCS Standings."

Votes for the winner are determined as follows:

The nation is split into six electoral sections, i.e., Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, South, Midwest, Southwest, and Far West. Each section consists of 175 media voters culled from the print, radio and television ranks. Every past Heisman winner casts a vote as well. Each elector casts a ballot showing his top three choices. The elector's top choice receives three points, the second receives two and the third receives one. The player who receives the highest number of points across all three choices is the winner.

The current odds at BetCBSports.com. on who will win this coveted award are as follows:

Jason White (Oklahoma) +100
Larry Fitzgerald (Pittsburgh) +250
Eli Manning (Mississippi) +350
Chris Perry (Michigan) +350
Kevin Jones (Virginia Tech) +450
Philip Rivers (NC State) +450
Field (All Others) +600

Explanation: In the Odds listed above Jason White is the current favorite to Win the Award. A $100 bet on Jason White pays back the player $100. A $100 bet on Philip Rivers to win would pay the player back $450.

Saturday November 14 Preview

2003-11-14T15:09:00.000-08:00

The following review is meant to give the player an "Inside Look" at some of the causes of line movements on football games throughout the week. This information should be taken seriously by the player, but not used as the sole basis to make his decisions on the upcoming games.

The following games were selected for review because they have received attention from either the Wiseguys or Public players throughout this past week.

Florida vs South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium 12:30 Eastern

The fact that Florida has moved into first place in the SEC means little for their chances of reaching a Bowl Game. The winner of the East will be determined according to the team's final standing in the BCS, and not on its conference standing.

The Public is coming in strong on this game. They continue to lay Florida -7. With South Carolina leading rusher Demetrius Summers expected to miss with a concussion, you can expect to see Florida -7.5 by game time. Remember, however, that head coaches play a big role in wins/losses in college football. Don't expect a team led by Lou Holtz to be less than ready to play on Saturday.

Virginia Tech vs Temple at Citizens Bank Park

The Hokies celebrated a little too much after beating the Hurricanes two weeks ago. Their lack of intensity, since then has dashed their chances of a berth in the BCS Bowl and the big East title, especially when they lost to #25 Pittsburgh last week.

Their spiral downward, however, has done little to dash the hopes of the gambling world. The Wiseguys and Public bettors are burying the Hokies. The game opened -24.5 and has moved to -26 and -26.5 as the Public and Wiseguys have continued to bet Virginia Tech. If the trend continues, expect to see the Hokies as a -27 to -28 favorite by game time.

Purdue vs Ohio State at Ohio Stadium 3:30 Eastern

The battle of the Big Ten is one of our most heavily bet games of the week. The Wiseguys came in early in the week and took all the Purdue +4.5. The game has moved to 3.5, but there is heavy opposition from the Public. We are being bet 30 to 1 on the Buckeyes.

The Buckeyes need this game if they are to have any hope of playing the Sugar Bowl. However, they still have Michigan to beat next week, and the possibility of a surprise upset by a hungry Purdue team could make this game exciting. Normally, the game would go to -4, but with heavy Wiseguy opposition expect it to stay -3 or -3.5.

Michigan vs Northwestern @ Ryan Field 3:30 Eastern

This is another Big Ten matchup, but without all the drama. Michigan needs the game for a share of the conference title, and perhaps earn a bid for the Rose Bowl. Northwestern is coming off a comeback win vs. Penn State last week and has a little momentum on their side at home since Michigan is coming off a bye.

Northwestern was bet early by the Wiseguys at +20. There are no substantial injuries for either team. One has to assume the Wiseguys feel that Michigan could be looking past Northwestern to the critical matchup with Ohio State next week. Looking past a fellow Big Ten team like Northwestern could be a huge mistake.

Cincinatti vs TCU at Amon C. Cater Stadium 3:00 Eastern

TCU has lost only two games since opening day of last season. One of those losses was to Cincinatti. TCU has jumped to fourth place in the BCS Standings and looks to hold on in order to acquire one of the four most lucrative Bowl Games. The Public believes they can do it and is currently laying the Frog's at a ratio of 29 to 1. The game opened TCU -6 and quickly went to -7 as the money started rolling in on the Frogs.

The Wiseguys have done nothing with the game, but if it goes to TCU -7.5, you might see some take back on Cincinatti. The fact that the Bearcats beat TCU last season, coupled with the pressure of remaining undefeated, could warrant a small play on the Bearcats.

Kansas State vs Nebraska at Memorial Stadium 3:30 Eastern

A win by either team guarantees at least a share of the Big 12 North title. The game opened a pick, and the Wiseguys have hit us hard all week on Kansas State. The game went from a pick to Kansas State -1, -1.5, -2 and now sits at -2.5. The Public has been undecided on the game. We have an even number of bets coming in on the Wildcats and the Huskers.

Keep in mind that Kansas State has never played well in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers have won the last 17 matchups, between the two, played at Memorial Stadium. With no substantial injuries to either team, and with so much at stake for such a close divisional rivalry, don't expect to see 3's on the game.

Louisiana State vs Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium 7:45 Eastern

The Public loves that number three ranking of LSU. The game opened LSU -7 and remains -7 in spite of the fact we are being bet almost 10 to 1 on LSU.

LSU has the number one rushing defense in the country. The Louisiana rush defense will be put to the test as Alabama boasts the SEC's leading rusher Shaud Williams. Even though the Public favors LSU strongly, don't expect to see the game go to LSU -7.5. LSU is coming off a bye week and is playing on the road against a division rival. There are a lot of factors pointing to some possible sharp money coming in on the Dogs before game time.

WHO WILL WIN, "SURVIVOR PEARL ISLANDS."

2003-11-12T06:54:00.000-08:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 12 November 2003)-The seventh season, of the extremely popular CBS Survivor series, featured 18 castaways stranded on the Pearl Islands off the coast of Panama. In last week's exciting episode, the field was narrowed down to nine remaining castaways, and the two separate tribes were merged into one remaining tribe named Balboa.

"The popularity of the Survivor series has been unprecedented," says BetCBS CEO, Dave Johnson. For the past few years, we have received suggestions from numerous fans around the world to post odds on who will win this exciting contest. The viewers, many of whom also like to gamble leisurely, believe that making a wager on who will win increases their excitement and anticipation of each weeks episode."

"Survivor Pearl Islands" airs every Thursday night at 8:00 PM ET. The odds are available up until the start of each new episode. At the conclusion of each week's episode, new adjusted odds will be placed on the remaining castaways who survive elimination from the Tribal Council.

The nine remaining castaways and their odds to win are as follows:

Burton +700
Christa +700
Jon +700
Ruper +700
Sandra +700
Darrah +700
Lillian +700
Ryan O. +700
Tijuana +700

Monday Morning Quarterback... Dave Johnson

2003-11-10T15:30:00.000-08:00

This was a huge weekend for the books. We won all of our big games knocking off the Wiseguys and the Public on both sides of the ball.

LARGE DECISIONS

Buccaneers Lose to the Panthers
A lot can be said for a little humility. Simeon Rice and the rest of the Bucs were given a little lesson in it by the Panthers on Sunday.
Early in the week Simeon Rice guaranteed a victory, and obviously there were a lot of gamblers listening. Without a doubt, this was our biggest game of the day. We were buried with Bucs money. All week the Public laid the -3 (-115) and wrapped the Bucs in Teasers at +3 and over 28.5.
An hour before the start of the game, ESPN released the information that Stephen David would not be available to play. Already buried at -3(-115) and -3 (-120), the Wiseguys stormed in and laid the Bucs up to -3 (-130). Since we were unable to get any Panthers money at that point, we were forced to throw out a -3.5 on the game. To move off the '3 Count' and go to -3.5 on the game means only one thing - everyone was betting on the Bucs.
The over 28.5, hit in the Teasers, but we knocked out the other side of the Teasers when the Panthers won by 4 points on the late touchdown scored by Smith, with a little over a minute left in the game.
Simeon has already started to shoot his mouth off again this week. Audacity has a funny way of motivating the opposing team. Thanks Mr. Rice.
Result: House Wins

Colts Lose to the Jaguars
This game was a perfect example of a team coming off an emotional win, matched against a team in need of a desperate victory at home.
The Public laid the -6 on the Colts all week. We were buried with Colts' money at -6 and were almost tempted to go to -6.5 or even -7 before the start of the game. However, a late influx of Wiseguy money on the Jaguars forced us to move the line to -5.5. The Wiseguys had some strong info on the game, and probably waited until the last minute to bet in the hope they could take +6.5 on the Jaguars. We continued to write Public money on the Colts at -5.5 and, by the start of the game, needed the Jaguars for a large decision.
The first half was all Colts as they jumped out to a halftime lead of 20 to 7. The only bright spot was the injury to Marvin Harrison, which kept him out of the second half. Players stormed us again at half-time eager to get more down on the Colts. They laid a pick on Indy in the second half, which in the end helped our end result as the Jaguars dominated throughout the third and fourth quarters.
We gave a little money back to the Wiseguys, who took +6 on the game, but overall, the Public loss on the game and the second half was strong.
Result: House Wins

Giants Lose to the Falcons
The Giants have played much-improved ball over the last few weeks. The Falcons have only played well enough to beat some non-contending high school teams.
The Wiseguys and the Public laid the Giants all week like the game was already over. This accounted for what was easily the biggest line move of the week. The game opened -9 and, by the start of the game, the Giants were -11.5. We wrote Straight Bets, Parlays and Teasers at -9, -9.5, -10, -10.5 and -11. We did take back a small amount of money at post on the Dirty Birds at +11.5.
Right out of the gate, the Falcons score and we are getting a little excited in the office. You love it when you write outstanding business on a big favorite, and they get popped right at the start of the game. The Giants threatened to take the lead a few times, but never developed any momentum. This game was an easy winner. Easy winners in the last few weeks have been few and far between, so it was a nice change of pace.
The fans at the Meadowlands started chanting, "Fire Fassel," towards the end of the third quarter. The loss of fan support is a terrible thing for a team to endure. Any chance of a late game comeback was sucked away by the New York fans. Coach Reeves got his 200th win and the Falcons have a little momentum to build upon as they await the return of Michael Vick.
Result: House Wins

Vikings Lose to the Chargers
There is something about Doug Flutie that just adds a whole lot of excitement to the game. At 41 years of age, and playing like he was 21, he led the Chargers to a much needed victory over the defensive handicapped Vikings.
I warned of this game early in the week in my, "Inside the Lines," article. This game was the Wiseguys vs. the Public. The Wiseguys ended up taking the money on this one. We took a little money early in the week at Chargers +6. The line went to -5.5 and the Public started laying the -5.5 in Straights and Parlays. We never needed to go back to -6 because when information was confirmed that Flutie would play, the Wiseguys double popped the game, causing it to move to -5. By the start of the game, we were heavy with Public money on the Vikings, and Wiseguy money on the Chargers.
The Chargers jumped out to an early lead and never looked back. The Vikings cost us a lot of money early in the season by beating the spread in their early victories. Their recent downfall is not bringing tears to the eyes of any bookmaker on the planet.
Result: House Wins

SMALL DECISIONS

Bengals Win vs. the Texans
Game landed seven. Both sides of the Teasers (Bengals +2 and Texans +10) hit. Although we wrote small action the Favorite and the Over got us a little.
Result: Players Win

Titans Win vs. the Dolphins
This was a total runaway victory right from the start. As I reported in my recent, "Inside the Lines" article, the Wiseguys and the Public were both betting the Titans. The game went from -4 and closed -5.5. We wrote a lot of Straight Bet money on the Titans at -4, -4.5 and -5. The game was not entirely disastrous. We saved a bundle because many Players took the Dolphins +11.5 in their Teasers. The Teaser loss helped even out the beating we took on the Straight Bets.
Result: Break Even

Steelers Win vs. the Cardinals
We wrote a lot of Steeler -7 money to the Public. We even went to -7.5 for a short time, but could not encourage much take-back. The Steelers covered the Straight Bets and the Favorite and Over connected on the Teasers.
Result: Players Win

Jets Win vs Raiders and Game Lands Three
Ouch!!! We almost snuck out of this game alive. However, after watching that two point conversion at the end I could smell disaster.
When a game lands on the number, especially when that number is 3, it is always hurtful. Players call all the time and ask why we don't go to -3.5 instead of -3 (-120). The main reason is that there is the liability of the '3 Count' for the bookmaker. Here is a perfect example: Players won on all the -2.5 and +3.5 bets. Plus, both sides of the Teasers (Jets +3 and Raiders +9) hit and the game went over the total.
Result: Players Win

Cowboys Win vs. Bills and Game Lands Four
Double Ouch!!! I just watched the Jets game land 3, and now the Cowboys go and win by 4. Although not as bad as the Jets, the game still banged us up a little. Players normally don't buy on or off the 4 count. Therefore, most of the money we wrote on Straight Bets for the game were all a Push. The Teasers still hit (Cowboys +2 and Bills +10), but we knocked out the Total on the Teasers when the game only scored 16 points.
Result: Players Win

OVERALL RECAP :

The 1:00 PM games were a landslide. We won all three big games including the upset wins by the Jaguars, Falcons and Buccaneers.

The 4:00 PM games were Break Even. We did well on the Vikings win, but ended giving it back to the Players on the Jets and Cowboys when both games landed on the number.

Overall, the wins for the day were much larger than the losses. This was a much needed good day for the house.

Sunday November 9 Preview

2003-11-09T15:26:00.000-08:00

The following review is meant to give the player an "Inside Look" at some of the reasons that cause line movements on football games throughout the week. This information should be taken into consideration by the player, but not used as the sole basis to make decisions on games.

Falcons vs. Giants @ Meadowlands 1:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE: Giants -9

With little chance of making the playoffs, after a disastrous start, Michael Vick is in no hurry to get back to playing quarterback. Coach Reeves gave the starting nod to Kurt Kittner, who currently has a quarterback rating of 32.4. The game moved early as the Wiseguys pounded the -9.-9.5 and -10. It settled in at the current line of -10.5. The game could go a little higher if the Public decides to take advantage of the Falcons weak defense, and its record of poor performance over the last few weeks.

Redskins vs. Seahawks @ Fedex Field 1:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE: Seahawks -3 -120

Spurrier is in the hotseat. There is lots of turmoil in Washington caused by the recent string of losses. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks are enjoying a promising first half of the season. The Public has been jumping all over the Seahawks in this game. We are currently taking Seahawks money at a 6 to 1 ratio -3 -120. Expect the number to rise a little between Saturday and Sunday. The information on the streets is that Ramsey is really banged up and the Redskins have no experienced back-up. The heavy money coming in on the Seahawks will probably result in -3 -130 on Seattle.

Bucaneers vs. Panthers @ Ericcson Stadium 1:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE : Buccaneers -3 -115

Simeon Rice is guaranteed a victory. The victory may be easier to achieve considering the Panthers may be without leading rusher Stephen Davis, who is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Davis is the NFC 's leading rusher and ran for 142 yards against the Bucs in the early season win.

The Public bettors have been laying the -3 on the Bucs at a ratio of 5 to1. The possibility of an avenge win, combined with the absence of Davis, should cause more money to come in heavy on the Bucs Saturday and Sunday. Expect to see the Bucs as high as -3 -35, if the information on Davis being out is confirmed.

Dolphins vs. Titans @ The Coliseum 1:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE : Titans -4

The Wiseguys love the Titans. Ricky Williams hasn't been gaining yards on the ground, and the Dolphins have to rely solely on Brian Griese to move the ball through the air. They came in early in the week on this game and laid -4, -4.5 and -5. The game has settled at the current line of -5.5/. There has been no Public preference on the game, so expect little movement.

Colts vs. Jaguars @ Alltel Stadium 1:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE : Colts -6

There are no serious injuries, or important information on this game, but the Public bettors are pounding the Colts. We are currently taking wagers on the Colts at a ratio of 20 to 1. The game is holding steady at the Opening Line of Colts -6, partly because the Colts are a road favorite and the Jaguars desperately need a win. The money alone will start to push it to -6.5 by tomorrow morning. The Colts could be -7 by game time.

Vikings vs. Chargers @ Qualcomm Stadium 4:05 Eastern
OPENING LINE: Vikings -6

This game is shaping up not only as the Vikings vs. Chargers but also the Wiseguys vs. Public. The Wiseguys came in early in the week and wiped out all the +6 on the Chargers. The Public is fighting right back and is laying the Vikings at -5.5 for a ratio of 15 to 1.

The game is settled at -5.5. The fact that the Wiseguys took +6 early in the week will probably keep the game from going back to -6 before tomorrow, regardless of all the heavy money coming in on the Vikings.

When the quarterback info is released as to whether Flutie will start or not, the line should make a small adjustment. If Flutie doesn't play, you can expect to see some Vikings -6.

Bills vs. Cowboys @ Texas Stadium 4:15 Eastern
OPENING LINE: Cowboys -4.5

The Wiseguys see something in this game that the Public does not. They took +4.5 on the game early in the week. The possibilities include the fact that the Bills are coming off a bye week and should be well rested.

The Public has been laying back the Cowboys -4, at a ratio of 4 to 1. The amount of money is small coming in on the Cowboys, and it could even shift before tomorrow. Don't expect to see any more Cowboys -4.5. The Bills defense, and the need for a win, are strong enough factors to keep this game -4.

Monday Night Football
Eagles vs. Packers @ Lambeau Field 9:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE: Packers -5

WHO WILL WIN, " THE NEXT JOE MILLIONAIRE."

2003-11-06T06:48:00.000-08:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 06 November 2003) -The field of 14 women hopefuls in the series, "The Next Joe Millionaire," has now been narrowed down to six finalists after last week's release of Linda, Lina and Allison. Who will win his gentle heart?

The premise of this popular Reality TV series is the same as it was last year. The idea is the same, the main plot is the same, and even the little white lie is the same. There is, in the role of the hero, Joe, a single, good-looking, unfulfilled rich guy. He is seeking a mate from among the most beautiful women in Europe. And the cad is using the remarkable attraction of about eighty million dollars as a lure. One of the lucky girls of course will get him in the end, just like in all good soap operas. Who will it be?

Whoever happens to win this World Series of romance will have a few small problems to consider, however. For one, David Smith is not a multi-millionaire at all. He is a reasonably good-looking, 24 year old, rodeo cowboy, who earns about $ 11,000 a year. On the other hand. if she likes lots and lots of moonlight rides…….!!

"The popularity of Reality TV has skyrocketed. Naturally, with the increased enthusiasm in the shows comes a desire to wager on what will happen in each succeeding episode," said BetCBS CEO, Dave Johnson. " The ODDS are taken down at the start of each new episode, and NEW ODDS are replaced after each elimination."

"The Next Joe Millionaire" episode airs every Monday Night at 8:00 PM ET. The remaining six women all have high hopes of landing David, the cowboy turned millionaire. However, what will happen, when the truth is revealed during the last episode, remains to be seen.

The remaining six girls and their ODDS to WIN are as follows:

Giada (Italy) +400
Olinda (Sweden) +400
Kristyna (Czech Republic) +400
Anique (Netherlands) +400
Petra (Netherlands) +400
Cat (Germany) +400

MAURICE CLARETT ENTERING THE 2004 NFL DRAFT

2003-09-29T07:46:00.000-07:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 29 September 2003)-Maurice Clarett is taking the NFL to court in order to enter the 2004 NFL draft. He is suing in an attempt to be declared eligible for the 2004 draft, or to force the NFL to hold a supplemental draft at an earlier date.

The petition was filed in US District Court in Manhattan last Tuesday. The suit claims that the league rules, regarding underclassmen entering the NFL draft, violate anti-trust laws. The NFL currently prohibits any player from entering the draft until he has been out of high school for at least three years. The NFL is the only sport with a draft that does not allow teams to select players when their high school eligibility is finished.

Alan Milstein, the lawyer for Maurice Clarett, has been quoted as saying, "We think we have a good case. We think Maurice will be in the NFL by next season." When asked how long it would take, he replied, "Three months, best-case scenario. The worst-case scenario is it takes past April, but I don't think it will be a worst-case scenario."

NFL spokesman Greg Aiello was quoted in response to the suit, "We do not believe that this lawsuit is in the best interest of Maurice Clarett, or college football players in general." When asked about his chances of winning a potential lawsuit earlier this month NFL Commissioner, Paul Tagliabue, responded " My feeling as commissioner is that we have a very strong case and we'll win it."

The NFL Players Association said in a statement Tuesday that, under the collective bargaining agreement, it wouldn't sue, or be party to a suit against the league challenging the college draft.

BetCBS.com FUTURE ODDS :
Will Maurice Clarett be cleared to enter the 2004 NFL DRAFT?

Yes, Maurice Clarett WILL be cleared to enter the 2004 Draft -140
(Wager $140 to win $100)

No, Maurice Clarett WILL NOT be cleared to enter the 2004 Draft +100
(Wager $100 to win $100)

* Betting 'Yes' includes Supplemental Draft

PRESEASON FOOTBALL - "Its all about the info."

2003-09-02T08:06:00.000-07:00

This past week I received an interesting email from a new player. He wrote the following, "Dave, how come I called in on Tuesday and the Chiefs were +1.5, but now they are -3? I opened an account with your book because I was told you offer fair lines. How come the game I want to bet has moved 5 points? I wanted to take the Chiefs +1.5 not lay -3."

The situation that this player experienced happens all too often in the preseason. Players sometimes cannot understand why games move so little in the regular season (1/2 point to 1 point), but can move 5 points or more during the preseason. My explanation of this preseason phenomenon can be summed up in one word - information. As Gordon Gecko said in Wall Street," I know of no more valuable commodity than information." Information is the sole reason why the Chiefs game moved from +1.5 to -3.

When the opening line was handicapped on this game in Las Vegas there were certain key, often intangible, factors that were not taken into consideration. It is these key factors that the Wise Guys zero in on when they make their bets. It is these key factors that lead to drastic line movement in preseason football.

Two of the most important factors, that can result in line movement on NFL games, are money and information. Of these two factors, information plays a much more significant role in the preseason. If a Bookmaker takes a large wager on a preseason game it does not mean the line will automatically move. However, if a Bookmaker takes a wager from a player, who has access to important information, then the line will probably move, regardless of the amount of money that has been written on this game.

Let me give you an example: Player A, an experienced player, who works hard to find valuable sports information, may come in right now and bet the Cowboys -3 for $2000. The Line Manager who runs betCBS immediately knows to move that line to -3.5 on the Cowboys. Soon, every other book in the world will be -3.5 as the player continues to bet the rest of his sportsbook accounts. Player B, a wealthy player, but not a professional, may come in right now and bet the Cowboys -3 for $2000, and we won't move the line. Why?

The logic is this. Player A made his wager because he 'knows' the Cowboys and how they are likely to play. On the other hand, Player B made his wager because he 'likes' the Cowboys, but does not have information that will factor into the outcome of the game. Although he bets a large amount of money, Player B does not have access to valuable information, and his opinion on a game will not justify moving the line at betCBS, or around the world. In this case the line remains Cowboys -3 until a Wise Guy decides to play, or enough money and bets are taken on one side of the game, that would justify moving it a small amount in an attempt to take back money on the other side.

With that in mind lets go back to the Hall of Fame game this past Monday night. The game opened up in Las Vegas at Packers -1.5. Right out of the box the Wise Guys started to bang the Chiefs hard. Chiefs +1.5, Chiefs +1, Chiefs pk, Chiefs -1, Chiefs -1.5, and it didn't stop there. They continued to relentlessly bet the game and drove the number 5 points until it settled in at Chiefs -3.

This was a serious preseason Steam game for the Wise Guys. So what information did the Wise Guys have that would move this line so dramatically? This game came down to two very important preseason factors that the Wise Guys keyed in on: 1. Coaching 2. Back-up Players Coaching.

Here's how their thinking played out. Dick Vermeil has always been an aggressive preseason Coach. He pushes his players hard in training camp and likes to set the tone for the season with big wins early in the preseason. This does not mean Vermeil will win every preseason game; it just means that Vermeil should be factored heavier when handicapping the line when compared to Mike Sherman. Decisions that Vermeil makes in the game would have more focus on winning the game than those made by Sherman.

Back-up players. The Chiefs have more depth with their second and third string players than the Packers. Both teams starting QB's were scheduled to only play 2 series. Not much of an opportunity to make an impact. The real game would be decided by the second and third string QB's and players. Todd Collins was 12 of 16 for 127 yd., with no INT's, while the Packers backup QB's combined 8 of 14 for only 71 yards, with 2 INT's. Not a huge discrepancy, but definitely enough to point the advantage marker to the Chiefs.

These factors, and others, led to the Steam play on the Chiefs. First the Wise Guys hit the game, and then the public followed, until we were heavily sided on Kansas City. At game time, 73.4% of all the wagers we wrote on the game were in favor of the Chiefs. Needless to say, we had a huge decision on the game and we were rooting hard for the Packers. Fortunately, for the bookmakers, this game was canceled in the 3rd quarter as a result of lightning and torrential rain.

The 9-0 score, at the time of the cancellation, would have led to a big payday for the Wise Guys, as well as the majority of our players. We booked a large amount of money on the Chiefs at every number from the +1.5, all the way, until the Chiefs were laying -3. The Packers were obviously outplayed the entire game and, at the time the game was canceled, were very lucky to be down only 9 points. We escaped with our tails between our legs on this game. Chalk one up for the Bookies.

There are three potential Steam games to watch this week: Opening Line Current Line Reason: Browns +3.5 Browns +2.5 Quarterback Controversy Redskins -1.5 Redskins -2.5 Coaching: Spurrier Cowboys -1.5 Cowboys -3 Coaching: Parcells.

Under the Weather-Not Just a Play on Words

2003-09-02T08:04:00.000-07:00

Have you ever noticed serious snow on your TV? No, I don't mean the kind associated with technical interruption of your favorite sports show. I mean something worse, like wind, rain, sleet and snowstorms. You know-those elements of Mother Nature that have had such a profound impact on the outcome of football games, through the years.

Every season there are a handful of games played on NFL Sunday where the outcome is directly related to the weather conditions under which they are played. The point is this; those gamblers who can identify the games likely to be affected by bad weather, can gain a distinct advantage for themselves when making their wagers.

In order to illustrate graphically how weather affects the game, it is probably best to use an example that sticks out in my mind from recent memory- the ill-fated AFC Championship Game 2002 at Foxboro, better known as the "Brady Blizzard".

On January 19th 2002, the New England Patriots and their second-year quarterback, Tom Brady, took on the Oakland Raiders, who were powered by a high scoring offense, and led by veteran, Rich Gannon. Foxboro has always been a hotbed for extreme weather conditions and this day was no exception.

The early weather forecast for the day of the game was the following:

Temperature 15-30 degrees F

20 + MPH Swirling Winds

Expected Snowfall 3+ inches

Field Cover 3 inches

The game started off with a light snowfall, which soon turned into thick, heavy white flakes, reducing visibility to almost nothing. The field surface as well as the surface of the ball became slippery, which led to many turnovers, and drastically restricted the passing game of both teams.

By half time, both of these powerhouse teams had accumulated a total offensive output of merely 7 points. The game was chock full of turnovers, and as it progressed, the running game became the focus. Both teams fought to get anywhere near the opposing end zone just to get a chance at a field goal try. In effect, a game that is usually measured in yards, became a game of hard-fought inches, and ultimately ended in one of the most controversial calls in NFL history.

Everyone reading I assume remembers the use of the Instant Replay Reversal, which late in the game ruled the Tom Brady pass as incomplete, rather than a fumble. I remember it painfully well myself, since the reversal on this call cost me, and many other books, a great deal of money in the playoffs. Without that particular reversal, we would have "cleaned up" on the game. Moreover, we would not likely have lost as much at the end when the Patriots won the Super Bowl. Even now, while watching replays, I am still not 100% sure that Brady's arm was in a forward motion when Woodson laid down that crushing tackle.

Here is a little history on how the line moved that stormy day:

The game opened Sunday night in Las Vegas with the Patriots three-point favorites at home, and good for a total of 41. Rich Gannon and the Raiders had been putting up strong offensive numbers all year long. Right from the start the total started getting bet over with 42's popping up all over the country.

Season averages for the two teams were as follows:

Raider's Offense 297.83 yds per game

Patriot's Offense 256.95 yds per game

Both teams had strong offensive numbers. Under normal circumstances, we would have been heavy on the over at game-time for both, Straight Bets and Teasers. Instead, that wicked Northeastern storm crept in before the start of the game, and the total on the game began to get slammed hard on the under.

The wise guys played the game under 42, under 41, under 40, under 39, until finally it settled at 38. If the game hadn't started, the wise guys would have continued to play it under as the snow continued to fall.

The outcome of the game is engraved in history. One of the most controversial calls in football history resulted in a final score of Patriots over Raiders 16-13. With the total staying under, and the game landing on the number 3, the cost to us was huge money. The wise guys, and semi-wise players alike, killed us on the under 42 and the +3.5 -30.

This particular contest offered up everything we try to protect against in weather-sensitive games. Here are some tips for you to keep in mind when handicapping weather games.

Tip One-Weather is an Equalizer

During games of heavy rain and snow, the ball becomes slick, quarterback to receiver eye contact is poor, and footing is less certain. Since it is harder to get a good grip on the ball, turnovers result. The increase in the number of turnovers favors the underdog, and opens up more opportunities for an upset.

Result: The wise guys bet us hard on the underdog. Most of the money booked was on the Raiders +3.5 (1-30).

Under normal circumstances this game may have been an offensive shoot-out. However, with the prevailing weather conditions, the respective Patriot and Raider game plans shifted focus from offensive play to defeating the other team defensively. In essence, emphasis on ball control and conservative play calling resulted in a low scoring game.

Result: The wise guys bet us very hard on the under.

Tip Three-Weather Forces an Offensive Running Game

The swirling winds during the game gusted 20 plus MPH. Without the ability to throw accurately, both quarterbacks became more dependent on the running game. That is OK too, except that running the ball takes time off the clock, and results in a shorter, low-scoring game.

Result: Due to the increased winds, the wise guys bet even more money on the under. The game moved four points before the start of it.

Tip Four-Weather Forces Teams to Rely on the Kicking Game

This type of weather forces teams to adjust their game plans. These two teams both relied heavily on scoring touchdowns all season. In a game like this one, the ability of the field goal kicker can be the deciding factor.

Result: In this game both kickers played well. Janikowski was 2 for 2, including a 45 yarder. Vinatieri was 3 for 3, including a 45 yarder. In other games, a weakness at the field goal position would sway the odds heavily in favor of the opposing team.

The Post Mortem

Looking back now, this game was a disaster from the start. The game was a dead under even before it started. The wise guys took the money and the stage was set for a disastrous Super Bowl, especially when the Patriots covered the 14-point spread.

Weather played a significant role in the outcome of this game. The underdog covered and the game stayed under. There was no way to take money back on the other side. The game was a total landslide from this bookmaker's perspective.

End Result: The bookmakers got killed, but there were a large number of happy players the morning after. They were celebrating the wake.

BET ON A KID

2003-08-29T07:52:00.000-07:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 29 August 2003)-Costa Rica is betting on you to bet on its kids. As many lucky tourists know, Costa Rica a warm and beautiful country well down the spine of Central America, and located squarely between Panama and Nicaragua. It has a very stable government and a viable health system. Like many other countries in the region, however, it has many families, which simply cannot afford the level of care they sorely need. BetCBS.com is doing something about it.

As a member of the Costa Rican business community, BetCBS.com has initiated a program where it is doing its part to help those most seriously in need. For every wager received from guests of BetCBS.com, it pays two cents to a fund (Bet on a Kid Program), that is donated annually to the Children's Hospital (Hospital Nacional de Niños) and The Ramiro Aguilar School for Children in San José, Costa Rica.

In essence, BetCBS.com is asking us to remember that when we place a wager with BetCBS.com, we are also placing a Bet on a Kid! Need we mention they are all great kids.

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ODDS ON TIGER WOODS WINNING A BIG ONE DURING REMAINDER OF 2003

2003-08-21T07:55:00.000-07:00

(Zapote, Costa Rica, 21 August 2003)- Casablanca Sports has posted future odds on Tiger Woods winning any one of the remaining PGA-sponsored events this season. Why doubt the Tiger? When you pare it right down to the raw numbers, Tiger Woods has enjoyed a very successful year by everyone's standards, but his own. The fact, that he has failed to win even one of the four major championships, however, has cast a shadow over Wood's play that he hasn't been able to shake, especially during the last few weeks.

After winning 7 of 11 majors he's now had three of his worst finishes in major play, including his tie for 39th place on Sunday. Posting his worst finish in any PGA championship, Woods never even threatened the leader board, opening with a 74, and finishing the weekend with a pair of 73's.

Tiger Woods is readily acknowledged as the world's top player, but clearly did not gain that ranking based on his most recent play. He has won four championships this year and is ranked second on the Money Leader Board behind Davis Love III. To contend for his fifth straight, Player of the Year, honors, he will have to finish the season on a high note.

There are eight PGA sanctioned events left in the season. Will Tiger shake the monkey on his back and win one of these championships? Bet on it now at betCBS.

BetCBS.com FUTURE ODDS :

Will Tiger Woods win at least one of the final PGA sanctioned events for the 2003 season?

Yes, Tiger will win at least one event. -400

No, Tiger will not win any of the remaining events. +300