Wednesday, November 26
The following review is meant to give my players an "Inside Look" at some of the causes of line movements on football games throughout the week. This information should be taken seriously by the player, but not used as the sole basis to make his decisions on the upcoming games.
The following games were selected for review because they have received attention from either, the Wiseguys, or Public players, throughout this past week.
Packers vs. Lions
Opening Line: Packers -7.5
What would Thanksgiving be without a little NFL? The Lions fell apart last week and gave up two late game interception Td's vs. the Vikings. However, they played hard and stayed in the game right up until the end.
The Packers, for their part, are coming off a much needed home win vs. the 49ers. Ahman Green had another huge game running the ball and the Packers moved into 2nd place in the NFC North.
The game opened Packers -7.5 this week. The Wiseguys came in and took the 7.5's and the game went to the current line of Packers -6.5. The Public is betting us at a ratio of 4 to 1 on the Packers. The large amount of money coming in on the favorite should drive the line up to -7 by game day.
Two of the Packers starting defensive players, Darren Sharper and Nick Barnett, are both questionable, and Favre is still troubled by an injury to his throwing hand. His completions per game have dropped, from over 21 thru the first seven games of the season, to less than 14 in the last four games. If the hand problem persists, expect to see Ahman Green run the ball at least 25+ times.
Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Opening Line: Cowboys -3
Fielder is back, and it looks like he has succeeded in jump-starting the Dolphins' offense. Fielder and the Dolphins scored two Td's, late in the Redskins' game, for their biggest come-from-behind victory since 1980. The Cowboys are also coming off an emotional win vs. the Panthers that has tied them with the Eagles in the NFC East.
Parcells and the "Boys" have become a Public favorite the past couple of weeks. The Public has bet the Cowboys all week, and this game is no different as they are betting them -3 at a ratio of 3 to 1.
The possibility of this game landing "3" is extremely strong. Both teams possess top 10 defenses and mediocre offenses. Don't expect to see any 3.5's on the game, but you should see Cowboys -3 (-120), if the money continues to fall on the "Boys." The Wiseguys expressed a little interest on the Dolphins at +3 (-105), early on Monday when we opened.
The Cowboys are ranked 1st in overall defense. Look for the Dolphins to try to establish a passing game early in order to open up some room for Ricky Williams to run the ball. This game will attract a huge amount of Teaser money on both sides, i.e., Cowboys +3 and Dolphins +3. The House will be rooting for a blowout by either team, preferably the Dolphins.
I would also like to send a special thanks to all of my players and their families during the Thanksgiving holiday. Enjoy the time with your family, eat plenty of turkey and, most of all, ENJOY the games.
Tuesday, November 25
Ohio State vs. Michigan
Navarre vindicates himself, and Michigan smells the Roses. Big games from both Perry and Edwards were too much for the Buckeyes to handle. The only up side for the House was that the game didn't land on the "seven count."
Result: Second Largest Player Win
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
The Sooners shut down the nation's top offense by running the zone to perfection. The game hurt us straight across the board. We wrote business at -18 through -21, and the Sooners covered easily. Before game time, the Wiseguys bet Tech +3 touchdowns for a small play. The overall action on this game was not that heavy, which saved the House a little. The 21-point spread may have scared away a little bit of the Public business.
Result: Medium Player Win
USC vs. UCLA
USC was taking the field just as Michigan was finishing off the Buckeyes. USC's Sugar Bowl dreams were back. Leinart had a big game with 289 yards and 2 Td's, and the Trojans covered the spread easily. The Players won big on this game knocking down the Straight Bets, Parlays and Teasers. We wrote business at every number from 21 to 23.5. This was a big Public game, and there was no late opposition from the Wiseguys.
Result: Largest Player Win
LSU vs. OLE Miss
Bookmakers don't get to vote, but Eli Manning is my pick for the Heisman. He played well enough Saturday to help us knock down LSU -6.5 and -7. We also knocked out some Parlays, but were bitten back a little with the Teasers on LSU -1/2 and -1.
Result: Medium House Win
Other Noteworthy Games:
Penn State/Michigan State Large Player Win
Washington/Washington State Medium House Win
Purdue/Indiana Small House Win
Iowa/Wisconsin Medium House Win
Wisconsin/Kansas State Medium House Win
Jaguars vs. Jets
Late 4th quarter heroics by Chad Pennington cost us money in Teasers. The Public was all over the recently charging Jets -4, and Jets on Teasers +2. The game-winning field goal was not enough to cover the four-point spread, so we knocked down enough money in Straight Bets to cover the loss on the Teasers.
Result: Small Win for the House
Titans vs. Falcons
We wrote huge Public money all week on the Titans. Straight Bets were written at 6.5, 6.5 (-115), 6.5 (-120) and 7, before game time. There was some opposition from the Wiseguys on this game. Every time we threw out a seven on the game, it was taken immediately. We ended up going into the game with most of our money written @ -6.5 on Straight Bets, and a pick on Teasers.
The game looked like it would be our biggest win of the day. Excitement was in the air when the Falcons jumped out to a 21-point lead in the 1st quarter. A little panic crept back when McNair threw two second-quarter touchdowns, but when he got knocked out of the game, there was instant widespread celebration. I was thinking, " There is no way that Billy Volek will win this game for the Titans." Well, needless to say, he did win the game, and we suffered a devastating House loss. The game lands seven and we paid the Public -6.5 and the Wiseguys on the +7.5.
Result: Largest Player Win of the Day
Bears vs. Broncos
Da Bears. They saved us big time this week. Playing in the second coldest home game in Broncos' history, the Bears and Kordell Stewart pulled off a huge upset. We had a large amount of Public money written at -10 and -10.5. The Teasers were all Broncos as well -4 and -4.5.
We knocked everything down. The game netted us out even on the 4:00 games after the huge Titans' loss. We licked our wounds and got ready for the night game.
Result: Largest House Win of the Day
Redskins vs. Dolphins
The Wiseguys and the Public were all over the Dolphins at a ratio of 3 to 1. Ramsey was questionable, and backup Tim Hasslebeck had little NFL experience. They laid the Dolphins all week, -6, -6.5 and -7.
Ramsey leaves the game early, and I start to get a little worried. However, Hasselbeck was amazing early in the game, completing passes and giving us a nice 20-7 cushion at half time.
The Dolphins pulled off their biggest, fourth-quarter comeback since 1980, but it wasn't enough to hurt the House. We knocked down all the Dolphins -7 on the Straights and Parlays, and pushed all the Teasers on Dolphins -1.
Result: Large Win for the House
OTHER NOTE WORTHY GAMES
Seahawks vs. Ravens
Miracle game lands 3, and we get middled. We lost on the -1 to -2.5, as well as the +3.5 (-130) taken on the game before post. Both sides of the Teasers connected.
Result: Medium Player Win
Panthers vs. Cowboys
Cowboys win by 4 and cover the 3-point spread. We knocked down small Straight and Parlay money on the Public who laid -4.
Result: Small House Win
49ers at Packers
Teasers break even because 49ers don't cover on the +9.5. We lose small money to the Public on the Packers, -3.5, -4 and -4.5.
Result: Small Player Win
Monday, November 24
Texas Rangers GM, John Hart was quoted recently as saying a Rodriguez trade would be a "long shot." Furthermore, he said, "We have the player, we love the player, we're going to retain the player. We're not talking about it. We're not interested in trading Alex."
However, other sources close to Rangers management have said that the $25 million a year spent on Rodriguez could be better served by adding several lesser players. They have said openly that they will entertain any offers made for the superstar.
Candidates who could afford to pick up the remaining seven year, $189 million dollar, blockbuster contract include, but are not limited to, the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Anaheim Angels and even the Los Angeles Dodgers.
"AROD is the most talented player in baseball," says BetCBSports CEO, Dave Johnson. However, the Rangers management learned the hard way that superstars could sell tickets. It must also be accepted that, in a team sport like baseball, the great players can't win alone. The Rangers have finished dead last the past three seasons, and now the possibility of a serious trade exists. We aim to make it exciting for you to bet on such an intriguing possibility."
We have posted the following odds on whether Alex Rodriguez will be traded before opening day this upcoming season:
YES, Alex Rodriguez will be traded +600
NO, Alex Rodriguez will not be traded -1000
Wagering YES on Alex Rodriguez means he will be traded, and he will approve the trade. Alex Rodriguez has a no-trade clause in his contract, so all trades will ultimately have to be approved by him.
The following games were selected for review because they have received attention from either, the Wiseguys or Public players, throughout this past week.
#4 Ohio State vs. #5 Michigan
Michigan Stadium, 12 PM ET, ABC
This is the biggest game of the upcoming weekend. Ohio State is fighting for a second consecutive chance for a National Championship, and Michigan is looking for a Big Ten title and a birth in the Rose Bowl.
Personally, I made the game a little lower, but the lack of offensive output, in large part due to the inconsistent play of Krenzel the last few weeks, justifies the high line on the Wolverines.
The game opened Michigan -7, and has not seen much movement. The Public is evenly split on this game right down the middle. This is an extremely heavily bet game, but we are writing the same amount of money on both teams.
We have a large number of players buying "on" and "off" the seven count. Where we sit now, if the game stays seven and lands seven, the House could take a beating. For even the tamest sport fan, there should be plenty of excitement in this game. Look for a big game from Navarre, who surely still has memories of the goal line interception of last season's game.
#1 Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
Jones SBC Stadium, 3:30 PM ET, ABC
Oklahoma looks to keep their perfect season intact and pursue a National Championship with a win vs. the Red Raiders.
The game opened Sooners-18 and quickly moved to -19. The Wiseguys came in early looking to capitalize on a weak Texas Tech team, who could perhaps be a little tired after the tough three-point loss to the Longhorns.
The Public has bet the Sooners every week this season and this game in no different. We are currently writing Oklahoma bets at a ratio of 9 to 1. The Sooners could have some trouble with the strong arm of Symons, but don't expect heroics. If the Public continues to play the Sooners, with no opposition, expect to see some -20 by game time.
#2 USC vs. UCLA
Memorial Coliseum, 3:30 PM ET, ABC
Southern Cal has dropped to third in the BCS Standings. This could be the catalyst for the Trojans to play more aggressively than usual.
The Public seems to agree as they have been betting the Trojans at a ratio of 23 to 1. The game is our most heavily bet one of the week. The game opened USC -21, but we moved it to -22 late Wednesday as a result of the heavy money being played. At this rate, the game will go to -22.5, or even -23, by Saturday, unless the Wiseguys find some value in the Bruins taking 3+ touchdowns.
#3 LSU vs. #15 Ole Miss
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, 3:30 PM ET, CBS
LSU has an outside shot at the Sugar Bowl, but in order to win the SEC West, they need to first get past Ole Miss. That task may prove daunting, considering Heisman candidate, Eli Manning, is leading the SEC with 36.6 points per game, and a victory here would wrap up the SEC West for Ole Miss.
There's been very little activity on this game. The Wiseguys have been quiet and the Public seems split on such a tight game. We have received a small number of bets with more of them on LSU -6.5. With public opinion split, don't expect much movement unless the Wiseguys see some value.
Seahawks vs. Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, 1:00 PM ET
There was a strong Wiseguy move on the Ravens early in the week. It's hard to tell the reason, but possibilities include, home field advantage after losing two close games on the road, as well as a shouting match in the locker room between Ray Lewis and another player regarding accountability. These incidents often supply the spark a team needs into getting both the offense and defense back on track.
The game opened Ravens -1 as a small favorite, but has risen to Ravens -3 (even). Seems like a strong move for a team that is running with a third string quarterback with limited experience.
The Public is betting the Ravens 2 to 1, but doesn't expect to see any Ravens -3.5 on the game. If anything, the Wiseguys will probably take back some Seattle +3.5 (-140) before game time.
Panthers vs. Cowboys
Texas Stadium, 1:00 PM ET
The biggest game of the weekend matches up the surging Panthers and the faltering Cowboys. Dallas is coming off a devastating loss to the Patriots, and the Panthers are entering this game with two emotional wins vs. the Buccaneers and the Skins. The game opened Cowboys -3 (-110). The Wiseguys came in Wednesday and made a small play on the Panthers +3 (-110), and the game went to +3 (-120). Not a strong play, but still a 10-cent move.
The Public was watching Monday Night when Parcell's offense got blanked for the second time in four games. They currently are betting the Panthers +3 (-120) at a ratio of 3 to 1. If the trend continues, and the Wiseguys decide to play the game again, you could see the game go possibly to Panthers +3 (-130) before game time. With two strong defenses, the possibility increases of the "3 count" landing in a game like this. We will definitely not move off the "3 count," and open ourselves up to getting middled, unless extremely strong money comes in on the Panthers.
49ers vs. Packers
Lambeau Field, 1:00 PM ET
A star is born. Tim Rattay played extremely well against the Steelers last week and Coach Erickson is hoping for a similar performance at Lambeau. It won't be easy for the 49ers to find their first road victory in Green Bay. They are winless on the road.
They are calling for a 70% chance of rain and 34 degrees temperature with the wind chill. This type of weather brings out the best in Brett Favre. His X-rays Wednesday showed no new damage to his injured thumb, so expect numbers similar to his past couple of weeks.
The game opened Packers -5, but early Wiseguy money moved it down to -4.5. This game will be a huge Public Teaser game. I expect big money coming in on the 49ers + 10.5 and the Packers +1.5. The weather will be a big factor as always at Lambeau. If temperatures drop and the rain increases, you could see the game go back to the Packers -5.
Broncos vs. Bears
Soldier Field, 4:05 PM ET
Jake Plummer is back and the Public loves it. Similar to last week, the Public has been betting the Broncos in Straights, Parlays and Teasers. The game opened -10, but has moved to -10.5 with the influx of Broncos' money.
With the Bears almost mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, they have announced the possibility of playing Rex Grossman. Denver would surely like nothing better than to see an inexperienced quarterback at the helm. The Broncos are poised to make a strong run at the playoffs, which will be tough considering they are three games behind the Chiefs.
The Bears have played better ball the last few weeks, but will need a strong effort, and perhaps a miracle, to stay in this game. I don't see much takeback money coming in before game time. Expect to see the game -11 or -11.5 at the kickoff.
Wednesday, November 19
BIG COLLEGE DECISIONS
#15 Florida Wins by 2 Points Over South Carolina
The Public loved Florida. Saturday morning we were so heavy on Florida we had to move the game to -7.5 to get a little takeback. With the absence of South Carolina's leading rusher, Demetrius Summers, the Public continued to lay the -7.5 on the game, right up until the kickoff. In the second half, the Gamecocks gave us a little scare when they couldn't stop the career-high, rushing day of Ciatrick Fason, but they held on long enough to ensure us the cover on the +7 and +7.5. We did well knocking out the Straight bets on this game, but lost a little back to all of those players who had the Gamecocks or Florida in Teasers.
Result: Small House Win
#10 TCU Wins by 33 Points Over Cincinnati
Week in, and week out, TCU defies the critics. The Public laid -7 on this game all week. I fully expected the Wiseguys to come in before the start and take back some Cincinnati +7.5. The exact opposite happened. The Wisguys stormed in on TCU on Saturday, laying -6.5(-120) on the buy, and -7 (-110). We quickly moved it to -7.5, but could do nothing to get any takeback. By the start of the game, we were heavy at -6.5, -7, -7.5 and -8. To rub salt in the wound, the game wasn't even close. TCU played like a team destined to earn a little respect. They convincingly avenged last seasons loss, and are now ranked sixth in the BCS, with a chance for a birth in a major Bowl game.
Result: Large Player Win
Kansas State Wins by 29 Over #18 Nebraska
Early in the week, we had Wiseguy money on Kansas State -2 and -2.5. On Saturday, however, the Public hit us hard on Nebraska +2.5. The fact that Kansas State has never won in Nebraska could have persuaded the Public to favor the Dogs at home +2.5. The game didn't move much at that point. Most players were taking +2.5 or +3 (-130) on the buy on Nebraska. The fact we had written early Wiseguy money was the deciding factor to keep the game 2.5 even, with the heavy Public money coming in at gametime. Kansas State won easily for the first time in Lincoln since 1968, and clinched a share of the Big 12 North title. The Wiseguys won a little, but we cleaned up on the Straights, Parlays and Teasers made on Nebraska.
Result: Medium House Win
#5 Michigan Wins by 31 Over Northwestern
The Wiseguys thought Northwestern +20 was a good bet. After all, they were coming off a bye week, and were facing Ohio State on the horizon. The Wiseguys were dead wrong. Michigan controlled this game from the opening possession, and easily covered the 18.5 point spread. We received a lot of Saturday money on Michigan from the Public laying the points. The game never moved much because of the early money bet on Northwestern. As a sad result, the public took home the dough, and beat us across the board on Straights, Parlays and Teasers.
Result: Medium Player Win
#3 LSU Wins by 24 Over Alabama
Ouch!!! I guessed wrong on the TCU game earlier and repeated that mistake with LSU. I really thought we would write some Alabama business back at +7.5 before gametime. Never happened. After writing LSU -7 money to the Public all week, the Wiseguys followed suit and came in strong at -7 and -7.5. There was nothing we could do to manufacture a takeback of any of the money on Alabama. We ended up closing the game -7.5 (-120). We know you don't care, but we got hurt bad. The Crimson Tide was dominated by LSU, who may have been motivated by the earlier overtime win by Ohio State. It was a horrible way for the House to end the day.
Result: Largest Player Win of the Day
NFL SUNDAY-BIG DECISIONS
Houston Wins by 2 Over Bills
The Public bettors on this one were not deterred in the least by the lack of offensive output from the Bills the last couple of weeks. They came in strong on six and seven point Buffalo Teasers at a pick and -1. We needed the Texans to win outright to knock out the Teasers on the game. To make matters more interesting, the Wiseguys laid -6 and -6.5 on the Bills before the start of game. We closed the game Bills -7, with little money on the Dog. The game was excruciating to watch. The Bills had many opportunities to cover and win the game. They engineered three drives inside the 20, and they came away with only two field goals. The injury to Eric Moulds proved to be a big factor, in the lack of offense, as they were unable to cash in within the Red Zone. The Texans squeaked by with a win, and we knocked out the biggest Teaser game of the day. The Wiseguys also helped by donating a little money on the Straight bets at -6 and -6.5.
Result: Large Teaser Win for the House
Bengals Win by 5 Over Chiefs
This was a huge game. The Public has been killing us all year on the undefeated Chiefs. Vermeil hurt us a few years back with the RAMS, and he's done it again this year with the Chiefs. Personally, I was a little worried about this game. Chad Johnson had gone public and guaranteed a victory, which often motivates the other team into playing their hearts out. Fortunately for the House, it didn't happen. We knocked down Straights-6, Parlays with the Chiefs and Over, and Teasers with the Chiefs at a pick. The win was the largest of the day and one of the best for the year. We had to give a little money back to the Wiseguys on some late money taken on the Bengals at +7 (-130).
We offered a Prop last week for the Chiefs to go undefeated all season. All the money we wrote was on the Chiefs to win every game +700. We knocked down good money on the Prop as well.
Result: Huge Win for the House
Eagles Win by 18 Over Giants
This so-called battle of the NFC East looked more like a playground fight. Although these two usually play a close game, often decided by a late field goal, this one was hardly a nail biter. McNabb silenced his critics as he threw for 314 yards and 2 TD's. Similar to the Bills game, we blew out tons of Teasers on the Giants +10.5. The Wiseguys were undecided. We had some Sharp players laying the Eagles at -3 even. Another Sharp group bet us Giants +3.5 (-120).
The opposition between the Wiseguys and Public on the game caused it to experience little movement. We went into the game hoping to knock out at least one side of the Teasers. The possibility of the game landing three, and having all Teasers hit, and also both sides of the spread -2.5 and +3.5, caused a little concern as well. That concern was immediately put to rest.
Result: Medium Teaser Win for the House
Raiders Win by 10 Over Vikings
We could not write a bet on the Raiders all week. The Public laid so much -5, that the game quickly went to -5.5 by early Sunday morning. This is exactly what the Wiseguys were looking for. They took Raiders +5.5 on the game, and it quickly went down to -4.5. We continued to write money on the Vikings -4.5 from the Public, right up to the moment the game started. Although we took the Wiseguy hit at +5.5, we still needed the Raiders to win because of the massive amount of Public money that came in on the Vikings Straight up and in Teasers.
The Raiders winning outright was huge. We knocked down all the Straight bets on the Point Spread and the Moneyline. Often, Public players will put Moneylines in their Parlays, when betting the Away Favorites. We knocked down all of these as well. We gave a little Straight money back to the Wiseguys on the +5.5, but knocked down the majority of Public money.
Result: Large Win for the House
Colts Win by 7 Over Jets
Our early euphoria was quickly dissolved as we watched the Colts game land right on the number. This game was destructive for the House as both the Public and the Wiseguys middled us. We wrote Public money all week long on the Colts -6 and -6.5. The money was so large that we went to Colts -7 before gametime. The Wiseguys came in hard and attacked. Buying the Half Point, they bet us Jets +7.5 (-120).
The 'seven count,' in the NFL, is not considered strong enough to justify charging more to players when buying 'on' or 'off' the number seven. We may have to reevaluate that policy after this season. While watching the end of the game, I had a strong premonition of impending disaster when the Jets made it close. I was actually rooting for a miracle sothey would miss the extra point, and the game would land six. Never happened. We lost back a big portion of the early wins to the Public, who laid -6 and -6.5, and the Wiseguys who took +7.5 on the game.
Result: Huge Win for the Players
Broncos Win by 29 Over Chargers
What happened Doug? He played so well last week I thought, going into the game, we might have a chance to win even a little money. That was not to be, as the Broncos came out strong and controlled every aspect of the game. The Public laid -8 on the Broncos. The Wiseguys followed suit and laid the -8 on Sunday, moving the game to -8.5. It was impossible to write a bet on the lowly Chargers. The fact they were coming off a big win the week before, and the return of Jake Plummer, surely had to do with the large number of bets on Denver. The only positive note is that the game wasn't even close. There is nothing worse than rooting the game, until the end, only to lose.
The Public hurt us bad on Broncos Teasers -2.5, and the Wiseguys got us on the -8.
Result: Huge Win for the Players
"This case will be right up there with the Kobe Bryant trial," says BetCBSports.com CEO, Dave Johnson. "High Profile Criminal Trials catch the publics interest. Wagering on the outcome makes it more interesting."
District Attorney, Thomas W. Sneddon Jr., has said that the sealed affidavit, outlining details of the case, will be released in 45 days. He was quoted as saying, "At this point in time, Mr. Jackson has been given an opportunity to surrender himself to the custody of the Santa Barbara Sheriff's Department, within a specified period of time."
A spokesperson for Jackson declined comment, but has said a statement will be released late Wednesday.
Will Michael Jackson be found guilty? Will he serve prison time?
BetCBSports.com has posted the following odds on the outcome:
Yes, Michael Jackson will be found guilty -160
No, Michael Jackson will be acquitted/hung jury +120
(Betting YES on the above odds means the player has to bet $160 to win $100. Betting NO means the player can bet $100 to win $120.).
Tuesday, November 18
"The Heisman Trophy is the most anticipated award during the college football season," says Dave Johnson, CEO of BetCBSports.com. "Fans across the country follow the race for the Heisman in the same way they follow the BCS Standings."
Votes for the winner are determined as follows:
The nation is split into six electoral sections, i.e., Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, South, Midwest, Southwest, and Far West. Each section consists of 175 media voters culled from the print, radio and television ranks. Every past Heisman winner casts a vote as well. Each elector casts a ballot showing his top three choices. The elector's top choice receives three points, the second receives two and the third receives one. The player who receives the highest number of points across all three choices is the winner.
The current odds at BetCBSports.com. on who will win this coveted award are as follows:
Jason White (Oklahoma) +100
Larry Fitzgerald (Pittsburgh) +250
Eli Manning (Mississippi) +350
Chris Perry (Michigan) +350
Kevin Jones (Virginia Tech) +450
Philip Rivers (NC State) +450
Field (All Others) +600
Explanation: In the Odds listed above Jason White is the current favorite to Win the Award. A $100 bet on Jason White pays back the player $100. A $100 bet on Philip Rivers to win would pay the player back $450.
Friday, November 14
The following games were selected for review because they have received attention from either the Wiseguys or Public players throughout this past week.
Florida vs South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium 12:30 Eastern
The fact that Florida has moved into first place in the SEC means little for their chances of reaching a Bowl Game. The winner of the East will be determined according to the team's final standing in the BCS, and not on its conference standing.
The Public is coming in strong on this game. They continue to lay Florida -7. With South Carolina leading rusher Demetrius Summers expected to miss with a concussion, you can expect to see Florida -7.5 by game time. Remember, however, that head coaches play a big role in wins/losses in college football. Don't expect a team led by Lou Holtz to be less than ready to play on Saturday.
Virginia Tech vs Temple at Citizens Bank Park
The Hokies celebrated a little too much after beating the Hurricanes two weeks ago. Their lack of intensity, since then has dashed their chances of a berth in the BCS Bowl and the big East title, especially when they lost to #25 Pittsburgh last week.
Their spiral downward, however, has done little to dash the hopes of the gambling world. The Wiseguys and Public bettors are burying the Hokies. The game opened -24.5 and has moved to -26 and -26.5 as the Public and Wiseguys have continued to bet Virginia Tech. If the trend continues, expect to see the Hokies as a -27 to -28 favorite by game time.
Purdue vs Ohio State at Ohio Stadium 3:30 Eastern
The battle of the Big Ten is one of our most heavily bet games of the week. The Wiseguys came in early in the week and took all the Purdue +4.5. The game has moved to 3.5, but there is heavy opposition from the Public. We are being bet 30 to 1 on the Buckeyes.
The Buckeyes need this game if they are to have any hope of playing the Sugar Bowl. However, they still have Michigan to beat next week, and the possibility of a surprise upset by a hungry Purdue team could make this game exciting. Normally, the game would go to -4, but with heavy Wiseguy opposition expect it to stay -3 or -3.5.
Michigan vs Northwestern @ Ryan Field 3:30 Eastern
This is another Big Ten matchup, but without all the drama. Michigan needs the game for a share of the conference title, and perhaps earn a bid for the Rose Bowl. Northwestern is coming off a comeback win vs. Penn State last week and has a little momentum on their side at home since Michigan is coming off a bye.
Northwestern was bet early by the Wiseguys at +20. There are no substantial injuries for either team. One has to assume the Wiseguys feel that Michigan could be looking past Northwestern to the critical matchup with Ohio State next week. Looking past a fellow Big Ten team like Northwestern could be a huge mistake.
Cincinatti vs TCU at Amon C. Cater Stadium 3:00 Eastern
TCU has lost only two games since opening day of last season. One of those losses was to Cincinatti. TCU has jumped to fourth place in the BCS Standings and looks to hold on in order to acquire one of the four most lucrative Bowl Games. The Public believes they can do it and is currently laying the Frog's at a ratio of 29 to 1. The game opened TCU -6 and quickly went to -7 as the money started rolling in on the Frogs.
The Wiseguys have done nothing with the game, but if it goes to TCU -7.5, you might see some take back on Cincinatti. The fact that the Bearcats beat TCU last season, coupled with the pressure of remaining undefeated, could warrant a small play on the Bearcats.
Kansas State vs Nebraska at Memorial Stadium 3:30 Eastern
A win by either team guarantees at least a share of the Big 12 North title. The game opened a pick, and the Wiseguys have hit us hard all week on Kansas State. The game went from a pick to Kansas State -1, -1.5, -2 and now sits at -2.5. The Public has been undecided on the game. We have an even number of bets coming in on the Wildcats and the Huskers.
Keep in mind that Kansas State has never played well in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers have won the last 17 matchups, between the two, played at Memorial Stadium. With no substantial injuries to either team, and with so much at stake for such a close divisional rivalry, don't expect to see 3's on the game.
Louisiana State vs Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium 7:45 Eastern
The Public loves that number three ranking of LSU. The game opened LSU -7 and remains -7 in spite of the fact we are being bet almost 10 to 1 on LSU.
LSU has the number one rushing defense in the country. The Louisiana rush defense will be put to the test as Alabama boasts the SEC's leading rusher Shaud Williams. Even though the Public favors LSU strongly, don't expect to see the game go to LSU -7.5. LSU is coming off a bye week and is playing on the road against a division rival. There are a lot of factors pointing to some possible sharp money coming in on the Dogs before game time.
Wednesday, November 12
"The popularity of the Survivor series has been unprecedented," says BetCBS CEO, Dave Johnson. For the past few years, we have received suggestions from numerous fans around the world to post odds on who will win this exciting contest. The viewers, many of whom also like to gamble leisurely, believe that making a wager on who will win increases their excitement and anticipation of each weeks episode."
"Survivor Pearl Islands" airs every Thursday night at 8:00 PM ET. The odds are available up until the start of each new episode. At the conclusion of each week's episode, new adjusted odds will be placed on the remaining castaways who survive elimination from the Tribal Council.
The nine remaining castaways and their odds to win are as follows:
Ryan O. +700
Monday, November 10
Buccaneers Lose to the Panthers
A lot can be said for a little humility. Simeon Rice and the rest of the Bucs were given a little lesson in it by the Panthers on Sunday.
Early in the week Simeon Rice guaranteed a victory, and obviously there were a lot of gamblers listening. Without a doubt, this was our biggest game of the day. We were buried with Bucs money. All week the Public laid the -3 (-115) and wrapped the Bucs in Teasers at +3 and over 28.5.
An hour before the start of the game, ESPN released the information that Stephen David would not be available to play. Already buried at -3(-115) and -3 (-120), the Wiseguys stormed in and laid the Bucs up to -3 (-130). Since we were unable to get any Panthers money at that point, we were forced to throw out a -3.5 on the game. To move off the '3 Count' and go to -3.5 on the game means only one thing - everyone was betting on the Bucs.
The over 28.5, hit in the Teasers, but we knocked out the other side of the Teasers when the Panthers won by 4 points on the late touchdown scored by Smith, with a little over a minute left in the game.
Simeon has already started to shoot his mouth off again this week. Audacity has a funny way of motivating the opposing team. Thanks Mr. Rice.
Result: House Wins
Colts Lose to the Jaguars
This game was a perfect example of a team coming off an emotional win, matched against a team in need of a desperate victory at home.
The Public laid the -6 on the Colts all week. We were buried with Colts' money at -6 and were almost tempted to go to -6.5 or even -7 before the start of the game. However, a late influx of Wiseguy money on the Jaguars forced us to move the line to -5.5. The Wiseguys had some strong info on the game, and probably waited until the last minute to bet in the hope they could take +6.5 on the Jaguars. We continued to write Public money on the Colts at -5.5 and, by the start of the game, needed the Jaguars for a large decision.
The first half was all Colts as they jumped out to a halftime lead of 20 to 7. The only bright spot was the injury to Marvin Harrison, which kept him out of the second half. Players stormed us again at half-time eager to get more down on the Colts. They laid a pick on Indy in the second half, which in the end helped our end result as the Jaguars dominated throughout the third and fourth quarters.
We gave a little money back to the Wiseguys, who took +6 on the game, but overall, the Public loss on the game and the second half was strong.
Result: House Wins
Giants Lose to the Falcons
The Giants have played much-improved ball over the last few weeks. The Falcons have only played well enough to beat some non-contending high school teams.
The Wiseguys and the Public laid the Giants all week like the game was already over. This accounted for what was easily the biggest line move of the week. The game opened -9 and, by the start of the game, the Giants were -11.5. We wrote Straight Bets, Parlays and Teasers at -9, -9.5, -10, -10.5 and -11. We did take back a small amount of money at post on the Dirty Birds at +11.5.
Right out of the gate, the Falcons score and we are getting a little excited in the office. You love it when you write outstanding business on a big favorite, and they get popped right at the start of the game. The Giants threatened to take the lead a few times, but never developed any momentum. This game was an easy winner. Easy winners in the last few weeks have been few and far between, so it was a nice change of pace.
The fans at the Meadowlands started chanting, "Fire Fassel," towards the end of the third quarter. The loss of fan support is a terrible thing for a team to endure. Any chance of a late game comeback was sucked away by the New York fans. Coach Reeves got his 200th win and the Falcons have a little momentum to build upon as they await the return of Michael Vick.
Result: House Wins
Vikings Lose to the Chargers
There is something about Doug Flutie that just adds a whole lot of excitement to the game. At 41 years of age, and playing like he was 21, he led the Chargers to a much needed victory over the defensive handicapped Vikings.
I warned of this game early in the week in my, "Inside the Lines," article. This game was the Wiseguys vs. the Public. The Wiseguys ended up taking the money on this one. We took a little money early in the week at Chargers +6. The line went to -5.5 and the Public started laying the -5.5 in Straights and Parlays. We never needed to go back to -6 because when information was confirmed that Flutie would play, the Wiseguys double popped the game, causing it to move to -5. By the start of the game, we were heavy with Public money on the Vikings, and Wiseguy money on the Chargers.
The Chargers jumped out to an early lead and never looked back. The Vikings cost us a lot of money early in the season by beating the spread in their early victories. Their recent downfall is not bringing tears to the eyes of any bookmaker on the planet.
Result: House Wins
Bengals Win vs. the Texans
Game landed seven. Both sides of the Teasers (Bengals +2 and Texans +10) hit. Although we wrote small action the Favorite and the Over got us a little.
Result: Players Win
Titans Win vs. the Dolphins
This was a total runaway victory right from the start. As I reported in my recent, "Inside the Lines" article, the Wiseguys and the Public were both betting the Titans. The game went from -4 and closed -5.5. We wrote a lot of Straight Bet money on the Titans at -4, -4.5 and -5. The game was not entirely disastrous. We saved a bundle because many Players took the Dolphins +11.5 in their Teasers. The Teaser loss helped even out the beating we took on the Straight Bets.
Result: Break Even
Steelers Win vs. the Cardinals
We wrote a lot of Steeler -7 money to the Public. We even went to -7.5 for a short time, but could not encourage much take-back. The Steelers covered the Straight Bets and the Favorite and Over connected on the Teasers.
Result: Players Win
Jets Win vs Raiders and Game Lands Three
Ouch!!! We almost snuck out of this game alive. However, after watching that two point conversion at the end I could smell disaster.
When a game lands on the number, especially when that number is 3, it is always hurtful. Players call all the time and ask why we don't go to -3.5 instead of -3 (-120). The main reason is that there is the liability of the '3 Count' for the bookmaker. Here is a perfect example: Players won on all the -2.5 and +3.5 bets. Plus, both sides of the Teasers (Jets +3 and Raiders +9) hit and the game went over the total.
Result: Players Win
Cowboys Win vs. Bills and Game Lands Four
Double Ouch!!! I just watched the Jets game land 3, and now the Cowboys go and win by 4. Although not as bad as the Jets, the game still banged us up a little. Players normally don't buy on or off the 4 count. Therefore, most of the money we wrote on Straight Bets for the game were all a Push. The Teasers still hit (Cowboys +2 and Bills +10), but we knocked out the Total on the Teasers when the game only scored 16 points.
Result: Players Win
OVERALL RECAP :
The 1:00 PM games were a landslide. We won all three big games including the upset wins by the Jaguars, Falcons and Buccaneers.
The 4:00 PM games were Break Even. We did well on the Vikings win, but ended giving it back to the Players on the Jets and Cowboys when both games landed on the number.
Overall, the wins for the day were much larger than the losses. This was a much needed good day for the house.
Sunday, November 9
Falcons vs. Giants @ Meadowlands 1:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE: Giants -9
With little chance of making the playoffs, after a disastrous start, Michael Vick is in no hurry to get back to playing quarterback. Coach Reeves gave the starting nod to Kurt Kittner, who currently has a quarterback rating of 32.4. The game moved early as the Wiseguys pounded the -9.-9.5 and -10. It settled in at the current line of -10.5. The game could go a little higher if the Public decides to take advantage of the Falcons weak defense, and its record of poor performance over the last few weeks.
Redskins vs. Seahawks @ Fedex Field 1:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE: Seahawks -3 -120
Spurrier is in the hotseat. There is lots of turmoil in Washington caused by the recent string of losses. On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks are enjoying a promising first half of the season. The Public has been jumping all over the Seahawks in this game. We are currently taking Seahawks money at a 6 to 1 ratio -3 -120. Expect the number to rise a little between Saturday and Sunday. The information on the streets is that Ramsey is really banged up and the Redskins have no experienced back-up. The heavy money coming in on the Seahawks will probably result in -3 -130 on Seattle.
Bucaneers vs. Panthers @ Ericcson Stadium 1:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE : Buccaneers -3 -115
Simeon Rice is guaranteed a victory. The victory may be easier to achieve considering the Panthers may be without leading rusher Stephen Davis, who is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Davis is the NFC 's leading rusher and ran for 142 yards against the Bucs in the early season win.
The Public bettors have been laying the -3 on the Bucs at a ratio of 5 to1. The possibility of an avenge win, combined with the absence of Davis, should cause more money to come in heavy on the Bucs Saturday and Sunday. Expect to see the Bucs as high as -3 -35, if the information on Davis being out is confirmed.
Dolphins vs. Titans @ The Coliseum 1:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE : Titans -4
The Wiseguys love the Titans. Ricky Williams hasn't been gaining yards on the ground, and the Dolphins have to rely solely on Brian Griese to move the ball through the air. They came in early in the week on this game and laid -4, -4.5 and -5. The game has settled at the current line of -5.5/. There has been no Public preference on the game, so expect little movement.
Colts vs. Jaguars @ Alltel Stadium 1:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE : Colts -6
There are no serious injuries, or important information on this game, but the Public bettors are pounding the Colts. We are currently taking wagers on the Colts at a ratio of 20 to 1. The game is holding steady at the Opening Line of Colts -6, partly because the Colts are a road favorite and the Jaguars desperately need a win. The money alone will start to push it to -6.5 by tomorrow morning. The Colts could be -7 by game time.
Vikings vs. Chargers @ Qualcomm Stadium 4:05 Eastern
OPENING LINE: Vikings -6
This game is shaping up not only as the Vikings vs. Chargers but also the Wiseguys vs. Public. The Wiseguys came in early in the week and wiped out all the +6 on the Chargers. The Public is fighting right back and is laying the Vikings at -5.5 for a ratio of 15 to 1.
The game is settled at -5.5. The fact that the Wiseguys took +6 early in the week will probably keep the game from going back to -6 before tomorrow, regardless of all the heavy money coming in on the Vikings.
When the quarterback info is released as to whether Flutie will start or not, the line should make a small adjustment. If Flutie doesn't play, you can expect to see some Vikings -6.
Bills vs. Cowboys @ Texas Stadium 4:15 Eastern
OPENING LINE: Cowboys -4.5
The Wiseguys see something in this game that the Public does not. They took +4.5 on the game early in the week. The possibilities include the fact that the Bills are coming off a bye week and should be well rested.
The Public has been laying back the Cowboys -4, at a ratio of 4 to 1. The amount of money is small coming in on the Cowboys, and it could even shift before tomorrow. Don't expect to see any more Cowboys -4.5. The Bills defense, and the need for a win, are strong enough factors to keep this game -4.
Monday Night Football
Eagles vs. Packers @ Lambeau Field 9:00 Eastern
OPENING LINE: Packers -5
Thursday, November 6
The premise of this popular Reality TV series is the same as it was last year. The idea is the same, the main plot is the same, and even the little white lie is the same. There is, in the role of the hero, Joe, a single, good-looking, unfulfilled rich guy. He is seeking a mate from among the most beautiful women in Europe. And the cad is using the remarkable attraction of about eighty million dollars as a lure. One of the lucky girls of course will get him in the end, just like in all good soap operas. Who will it be?
Whoever happens to win this World Series of romance will have a few small problems to consider, however. For one, David Smith is not a multi-millionaire at all. He is a reasonably good-looking, 24 year old, rodeo cowboy, who earns about $ 11,000 a year. On the other hand. if she likes lots and lots of moonlight rides…….!!
"The popularity of Reality TV has skyrocketed. Naturally, with the increased enthusiasm in the shows comes a desire to wager on what will happen in each succeeding episode," said BetCBS CEO, Dave Johnson. " The ODDS are taken down at the start of each new episode, and NEW ODDS are replaced after each elimination."
"The Next Joe Millionaire" episode airs every Monday Night at 8:00 PM ET. The remaining six women all have high hopes of landing David, the cowboy turned millionaire. However, what will happen, when the truth is revealed during the last episode, remains to be seen.
The remaining six girls and their ODDS to WIN are as follows:
Giada (Italy) +400
Olinda (Sweden) +400
Kristyna (Czech Republic) +400
Anique (Netherlands) +400
Petra (Netherlands) +400
Cat (Germany) +400